- Metals and Mining
We Think That There Are Issues Underlying Kaiser Reef's (ASX:KAU) Earnings
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Kaiser Reef Limited's (ASX:KAU) stock hasn't moved much. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.
View our latest analysis for Kaiser Reef
A Closer Look At Kaiser Reef's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Kaiser Reef has an accrual ratio of 0.20 for the year to December 2022. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of AU$2.0m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of AU$1.91m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of AU$2.0m, this year, indicates high risk. One positive for Kaiser Reef shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Kaiser Reef.
Our Take On Kaiser Reef's Profit Performance
Kaiser Reef didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Because of this, we think that it may be that Kaiser Reef's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. On the bright side, the company showed enough improvement to book a profit this year, after losing money last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Kaiser Reef (1 can't be ignored!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Kaiser Reef's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether Kaiser Reef is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Kaiser Reef Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold projects in Australia.
Flawless balance sheet with questionable track record.