Stock Analysis

ASX Value Picks Austal And 2 More Stocks That May Be Trading Below Intrinsic Estimates

ASX:ASB
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As the Australian market flirts with its all-time high, buoyed by strong performances in sectors like energy, investors are keenly watching for opportunities amidst mixed economic signals such as a low GDP growth rate. In this environment, identifying undervalued stocks that may be trading below their intrinsic value can offer potential rewards for those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

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Top 10 Undervalued Stocks Based On Cash Flows In Australia

NameCurrent PriceFair Value (Est)Discount (Est)
Praemium (ASX:PPS)A$0.695A$1.1539.8%
Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL)A$7.09A$13.2046.3%
Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC)A$8.23A$13.7840.3%
Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX)A$0.285A$0.4739.5%
Polymetals Resources (ASX:POL)A$0.85A$1.5545.3%
Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC)A$18.86A$33.8844.3%
Nuix (ASX:NXL)A$2.40A$4.0240.4%
ReadyTech Holdings (ASX:RDY)A$2.35A$4.6949.9%
PointsBet Holdings (ASX:PBH)A$1.20A$2.0541.6%
Superloop (ASX:SLC)A$2.81A$4.9242.9%

Click here to see the full list of 33 stocks from our Undervalued ASX Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener.

Let's explore several standout options from the results in the screener.

Austal (ASX:ASB)

Overview: Austal Limited designs, manufactures, and supports vessels for commercial and defense customers globally, with a market cap of A$2.49 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue is derived from several segments: USA - Support (A$310.21 million), USA - Shipbuilding (A$916.49 million), Australasia - Support (A$156.69 million), and Australasia - Shipbuilding (A$197.62 million).

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 33.3%

Austal Limited is trading at A$5.94, significantly below its estimated fair value of A$8.91, suggesting it may be undervalued based on cash flows. Its earnings are forecast to grow significantly at 20.08% annually over the next three years, outpacing the Australian market's growth rate of 11.7%. However, recent equity offerings totaling A$220 million could indicate potential shareholder dilution concerns despite robust profit growth and favorable valuation metrics.

ASX:ASB Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025
ASX:ASB Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025

Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM)

Overview: Capricorn Metals Ltd is involved in the evaluation, exploration, development, and production of gold properties in Australia with a market cap of A$4.33 billion.

Operations: The company generates revenue primarily from its Karlawinda gold operations, amounting to A$379.47 million.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 32.1%

Capricorn Metals, trading at A$10.05, is priced below its estimated fair value of A$14.81, indicating potential undervaluation based on cash flows. Earnings are expected to grow significantly at 32.8% annually over the next three years, surpassing the Australian market's growth rate. Despite recent executive changes and legal issues involving its CEO, Capricorn's leadership remains stable with Executive Chairman Mark Clark at the helm, ensuring continuity in management and strategic direction.

ASX:CMM Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025
ASX:CMM Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025

James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX)

Overview: James Hardie Industries plc manufactures and sells fiber cement, fiber gypsum, and cement bonded building products for both interior and exterior construction applications across the United States, Australia, Europe, and New Zealand with a market cap of A$16.52 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue is primarily derived from North America Fiber Cement ($2.86 billion), Asia Pacific Fiber Cement ($519.90 million), and Europe Building Products ($494.30 million).

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 33.3%

James Hardie Industries, currently trading at A$38.42, is valued below its estimated fair value of A$57.61, suggesting it may be undervalued based on cash flows. The company forecasts annual revenue growth of 11.7% and earnings growth of 19.1%, both outpacing the Australian market averages. Recently, James Hardie secured a US$3.5 billion credit facility to support its merger with The AZEK Company Inc., potentially enhancing future cash flow generation through strategic expansion and synergy realization.

ASX:JHX Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025
ASX:JHX Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2025

Summing It All Up

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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