Some Celsius Resources (ASX:CLA) Shareholders Have Copped A 99% Share Price Wipe Out

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 11, 2020
ASX:CLA

Celsius Resources Limited (ASX:CLA) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 18% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 99% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained.

We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Check out our latest analysis for Celsius Resources

Celsius Resources recorded just AU$75,506 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Celsius Resources finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as Celsius Resources investors might realise.

When it last reported its balance sheet in June 2019, Celsius Resources had cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$6.2m. While that's nothing to panic about, there is some possibility the company will raise more capital, especially if profits are not imminent. We'd venture that shareholders are concerned about the need for more capital, because the share price has dropped 63% per year, over 5 years . You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Celsius Resources's cash levels have changed over time. You can see in the image below, how Celsius Resources's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:CLA Historical Debt, February 11th 2020
ASX:CLA Historical Debt, February 11th 2020

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? It would bother me, that's for sure. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Celsius Resources had a tough year, with a total loss of 76%, against a market gain of about 20%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 63% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with Celsius Resources (at least 3 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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