Readers hoping to buy BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. Typically, the ex-dividend date is two business days before the record date, which is the date on which a company determines the shareholders eligible to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves at least two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. In other words, investors can purchase BHP Group's shares before the 6th of March in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on the 27th of March.
The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.50 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of US$1.00 per share. Based on the last year's worth of payments, BHP Group stock has a trailing yield of around 4.1% on the current share price of AU$39.60. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether BHP Group's dividend is reliable and sustainable. So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.
View our latest analysis for BHP Group
Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. BHP Group is paying out an acceptable 55% of its profit, a common payout level among most companies. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. It paid out more than half (72%) of its free cash flow in the past year, which is within an average range for most companies.
It's positive to see that BHP Group's dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut.
Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.
Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. This is why it's a relief to see BHP Group earnings per share are up 6.1% per annum over the last five years. While earnings have been growing at a credible rate, the company is paying out a majority of its earnings to shareholders. Therefore it's unlikely that the company will be able to reinvest heavily in its business, which could presage slower growth in the future.
Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. BHP Group's dividend payments per share have declined at 1.5% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring.
To Sum It Up
Should investors buy BHP Group for the upcoming dividend? Earnings per share growth has been unremarkable, and while the company is paying out a majority of its earnings and cash flow in the form of dividends, the dividend payments don't appear excessive. Overall, it's not a bad combination, but we feel that there are likely more attractive dividend prospects out there.
However if you're still interested in BHP Group as a potential investment, you should definitely consider some of the risks involved with BHP Group. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for BHP Group that we strongly recommend you have a look at before investing in the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.