Stock Analysis

I Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Passed With Ease

ASX:BHP
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Some have more dollars than sense, they say, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can easily find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.'

If, on the other hand, you like companies that have revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in BHP Group (ASX:BHP). Now, I'm not saying that the stock is necessarily undervalued today; but I can't shake an appreciation for the profitability of the business itself. While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, unless its owners have an endless appetite for subsidizing the customer, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else breathe its last breath.

Check out our latest analysis for BHP Group

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How Quickly Is BHP Group Increasing Earnings Per Share?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS). Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. As a tree reaches steadily for the sky, BHP Group's EPS has grown 21% each year, compound, over three years. If the company can sustain that sort of growth, we'd expect shareholders to come away winners.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. BHP Group shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 35% to 49%, and revenue is growing. That's great to see, on both counts.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings, and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:BHP Earnings and Revenue History December 14th 2021

In investing, as in life, the future matters more than the past. So why not check out this free interactive visualization of BHP Group's forecast profits?

Are BHP Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a AU$205b company like BHP Group. But we do take comfort from the fact that they are investors in the company. To be specific, they have US$69m worth of shares. That shows significant buy-in, and may indicate conviction in the business strategy. Even though that's only about 0.03% of the company, it's enough money to indicate alignment between the leaders of the business and ordinary shareholders.

Is BHP Group Worth Keeping An Eye On?

For growth investors like me, BHP Group's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. Further, the high level of insider ownership impresses me, and suggests that I'm not the only one who appreciates the EPS growth. So this is very likely the kind of business that I like to spend time researching, with a view to discerning its true value. We should say that we've discovered 2 warning signs for BHP Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you can do well (sometimes) buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But as a growth investor I always like to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.