A Look at BHP (ASX:BHP) Valuation Following Fresh US Mine Revival Plans and Copper-Focused Strategy

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) is weighing the reopening of four long-shuttered mines in Arizona’s Globe-Miami region, prompted by shifts in US government policy and rising copper prices. The company’s increased exploration signals renewed strategic interest in the area.

See our latest analysis for BHP Group.

The flurry of news around BHP’s US exploration drive comes after a period of renewed investor interest in the stock. Despite some recent iron ore supply challenges in China, BHP’s 1-year total shareholder return stands at a solid 8%, and momentum has picked up lately with an 8% share price gain over the last month. Over the past five years, long-term holders have seen total returns climb nearly 93%, which shows both resilience and upside as new strategic moves emerge.

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With the share price still trading below analysts’ targets and improving long-term returns, the question for investors is whether BHP is currently undervalued or if the stock has already accounted for its growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 1.8% Undervalued

With BHP Group's fair value pegged at A$44.42 by the most widely followed narrative and a last close of A$43.60, analysts currently see opportunity for modest upside. The narrative’s logic combines sector tailwinds and company-specific strengths to arrive at this view.

The company's focus on long-life, low-cost assets in world-class jurisdictions positions BHP as a reliable supplier, attracting long-term supply agreements and potentially supporting premium pricing and more stable long-term cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the assumptions driving this price target? The narrative hinges on a precise mix of margin improvement, disciplined capital management, and ambitious project execution. What bold forecasts or hidden pressures shaped this calculation? Explore what really moves the needle in BHP’s future path.

Result: Fair Value of $44.42 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent inflation or a slowdown in Chinese steel demand could quickly put pressure on BHP’s margins and future earnings outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

Build Your Own BHP Group Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to dive into the data and reach your own conclusions, you can easily build a personalized narrative in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BHP Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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