Stock Analysis

Do Cogstate's (ASX:CGS) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

ASX:CGS
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

If this kind of company isn't your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Cogstate (ASX:CGS). Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.

Check out our latest analysis for Cogstate

How Fast Is Cogstate Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

In the last three years Cogstate's earnings per share took off; so much so that it's a bit disingenuous to use these figures to try and deduce long term estimates. So it would be better to isolate the growth rate over the last year for our analysis. Cogstate's EPS shot up from US$0.031 to US$0.043; a result that's bound to keep shareholders happy. That's a fantastic gain of 41%.

One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. The good news is that Cogstate is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 12.7 percentage points to 24%, over the last year. That's great to see, on both counts.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:CGS Earnings and Revenue History September 28th 2022

The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for Cogstate's future EPS 100% free.

Are Cogstate Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. So it is good to see that Cogstate insiders have a significant amount of capital invested in the stock. Holding US$114m worth of stock in the company is no laughing matter and insiders will be committed in delivering the best outcomes for shareholders. Amounting to 35% of the outstanding shares, indicating that insiders are also significantly impacted by the decisions they make on the behalf of the business.

Does Cogstate Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

If you believe that share price follows earnings per share you should definitely be delving further into Cogstate's strong EPS growth. This EPS growth rate is something the company should be proud of, and so it's no surprise that insiders are holding on to a considerable chunk of shares. On the balance of its merits, solid EPS growth and company insiders who are aligned with the shareholders would indicate a business that is worthy of further research. You still need to take note of risks, for example - Cogstate has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

There's always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.