Ansell Limited (ASX:ANN) Shares Could Be 38% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Ansell Limited (ASX:ANN) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Ansell

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$280.0m	US$244.0m	US$250.0m	US$243.0m	US$242.0m	US$242.8m	US$244.7m	US$247.4m	US$250.8m	US$254.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 0.31%	Est @ 0.79%	Est @ 1.13%	Est @ 1.37%	Est @ 1.53%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.4%	US$263	US$216	US$208	US$190	US$178	US$168	US$159	US$151	US$144	US$137

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.8b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$255m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.4%– 1.9%) = US$5.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$5.8b÷ ( 1 + 6.4%)¹⁰= US$3.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$5.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$34.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ansell as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.944. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Ansell, we've put together three pertinent items you should look at:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Ansell that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ANN's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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