Bega Cheese Valuation

Is BGA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BGA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BGA (A$4.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BGA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BGA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BGA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA23.2x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BGA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for BGA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.8x
ING Inghams Group
0.4x3.3%AU$1.3b
UMG United Malt Group
1x4.4%AU$1.5b
AAC Australian Agricultural
2.5x4.6%AU$843.9m
CBO Cobram Estate Olives
3.4x11.0%AU$703.4m
BGA Bega Cheese
0.4x3.6%AU$1.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BGA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BGA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a35.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a35.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BGA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the Australian Food industry average (0.6x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BGA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BGA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BGA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BGA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.30
AU$4.12
-4.3%
20.4%AU$5.35AU$2.10n/a11
Jun ’25AU$4.43
AU$4.08
-7.8%
19.6%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
May ’25AU$4.14
AU$4.02
-2.8%
19.4%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
Apr ’25AU$4.17
AU$4.02
-3.5%
19.4%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
Mar ’25AU$4.05
AU$3.89
-4.0%
18.7%AU$4.94AU$2.10n/a11
Feb ’25AU$3.69
AU$3.42
-7.5%
16.6%AU$4.10AU$2.10n/a10
Jan ’25AU$3.53
AU$3.38
-4.2%
15.9%AU$4.10AU$2.10n/a10
Dec ’24AU$3.07
AU$3.31
+7.7%
14.6%AU$4.00AU$2.10n/a10
Nov ’24AU$2.82
AU$3.32
+17.9%
13.8%AU$4.00AU$2.10n/a11
Oct ’24AU$2.53
AU$3.35
+32.7%
13.7%AU$4.00AU$2.10n/a11
Sep ’24AU$3.02
AU$3.43
+13.9%
14.2%AU$4.00AU$2.10n/a11
Aug ’24AU$3.32
AU$3.40
+2.5%
18.1%AU$4.90AU$2.10n/a11
Jul ’24AU$2.86
AU$3.40
+19.0%
18.1%AU$4.90AU$2.10n/a11
Jun ’24AU$3.61
AU$3.74
+3.7%
18.6%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.4310
May ’24AU$3.82
AU$3.74
-2.0%
18.6%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.1410
Apr ’24AU$3.61
AU$3.79
+5.0%
18.5%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.1711
Mar ’24AU$3.51
AU$3.98
+13.5%
14.2%AU$5.20AU$3.15AU$4.0512
Feb ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.12
+5.9%
12.0%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.6912
Jan ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.08
+4.7%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.5312
Dec ’23AU$3.54
AU$4.08
+15.3%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.0712
Nov ’23AU$3.28
AU$4.08
+24.4%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$2.8212
Oct ’23AU$3.48
AU$4.18
+20.1%
11.0%AU$5.20AU$3.60AU$2.5311
Sep ’23AU$4.01
AU$4.19
+4.6%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.50AU$3.0211
Aug ’23AU$3.48
AU$4.12
+18.4%
20.2%AU$5.63AU$3.10AU$3.3211
Jul ’23AU$3.79
AU$5.33
+40.7%
16.6%AU$7.50AU$4.10AU$2.8611
Jun ’23AU$4.74
AU$5.65
+19.1%
12.7%AU$7.50AU$4.80AU$3.6110

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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