Bega Cheese Limited

CHIA:BGA Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.8b

Bega Cheese Valuation

Is BGA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BGA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BGA (A$5.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$8.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BGA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BGA?

Key metric: As BGA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BGA. This is calculated by dividing BGA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BGA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio57.7x
EarningsAU$30.50m
Market CapAU$1.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BGA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BGA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.8x
ING Inghams Group
11.6x5.2%AU$1.2b
AAC Australian Agricultural
24.4x-27.6%AU$843.9m
CBO Cobram Estate Olives
48.5x15.4%AU$898.7m
SGLLV Ricegrowers
10.7x9.6%AU$688.4m
BGA Bega Cheese
57.7x22.5%AU$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.7x) compared to the peer average (23.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BGA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BGA 57.7xIndustry Avg. 16.0xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.7x) compared to the Global Food industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BGA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BGA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio57.7x
Fair PE Ratio32.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BGA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$5.77
AU$4.94
-14.3%
15.8%AU$6.45AU$3.50n/a9
Dec ’25AU$5.27
AU$4.86
-7.8%
15.4%AU$6.45AU$3.50n/a9
Nov ’25AU$5.15
AU$4.92
-4.5%
14.9%AU$6.45AU$3.50n/a10
Oct ’25AU$5.26
AU$4.85
-7.8%
12.5%AU$5.75AU$3.50n/a10
Sep ’25AU$5.04
AU$4.70
-6.8%
16.0%AU$5.75AU$3.18n/a11
Aug ’25AU$4.45
AU$4.18
-6.0%
20.5%AU$5.35AU$2.10n/a11
Jul ’25AU$4.22
AU$4.15
-1.6%
20.4%AU$5.35AU$2.10n/a11
Jun ’25AU$4.43
AU$4.08
-7.8%
19.6%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
May ’25AU$4.14
AU$4.02
-2.8%
19.4%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
Apr ’25AU$4.17
AU$4.02
-3.5%
19.4%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
Mar ’25AU$4.05
AU$3.89
-4.0%
18.7%AU$4.94AU$2.10n/a11
Feb ’25AU$3.69
AU$3.42
-7.5%
16.6%AU$4.10AU$2.10n/a10
Jan ’25AU$3.53
AU$3.38
-4.2%
15.9%AU$4.10AU$2.10n/a10
Dec ’24AU$3.07
AU$3.31
+7.7%
14.6%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.2710
Nov ’24AU$2.82
AU$3.32
+17.9%
13.8%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.1511
Oct ’24AU$2.53
AU$3.35
+32.7%
13.7%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.2611
Sep ’24AU$3.02
AU$3.43
+13.9%
14.2%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.0411
Aug ’24AU$3.32
AU$3.40
+2.5%
18.1%AU$4.90AU$2.10AU$4.4511
Jul ’24AU$2.86
AU$3.40
+19.0%
18.1%AU$4.90AU$2.10AU$4.2211
Jun ’24AU$3.61
AU$3.74
+3.7%
18.6%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.4310
May ’24AU$3.82
AU$3.74
-2.0%
18.6%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.1410
Apr ’24AU$3.61
AU$3.79
+5.0%
18.5%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.1711
Mar ’24AU$3.51
AU$3.98
+13.5%
14.2%AU$5.20AU$3.15AU$4.0512
Feb ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.12
+5.9%
12.0%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.6912
Jan ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.08
+4.7%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.5312
Dec ’23AU$3.54
AU$4.08
+15.3%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.0712

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/31 09:03
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/31 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Bega Cheese Limited is covered by 18 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Josh KannourakisBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter