Bega Cheese Limited

CHIA:BGA Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.6b

Bega Cheese Valuation

Is BGA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BGA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BGA (A$5.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BGA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BGA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BGA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA19.6x
PEG Ratio2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BGA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BGA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.6x
ING Inghams Group
11x5.2%AU$1.1b
CBO Cobram Estate Olives
42.2x15.1%AU$781.7m
SGLLV Ricegrowers
9.4x9.8%AU$596.6m
FFI FFI Holdings
23.8xn/aAU$41.4m
BGA Bega Cheese
53.8x22.4%AU$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.8x) compared to the peer average (21.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BGA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a28.3%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a28.3%
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No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.8x) compared to the Global Food industry average (16.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BGA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BGA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio53.8x
Fair PE Ratio32.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BGA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$5.37
AU$4.86
-9.5%
15.4%AU$6.45AU$3.50n/a9
Nov ’25AU$5.15
AU$4.92
-4.5%
14.9%AU$6.45AU$3.50n/a10
Oct ’25AU$5.26
AU$4.85
-7.8%
12.5%AU$5.75AU$3.50n/a10
Sep ’25AU$5.04
AU$4.70
-6.8%
16.0%AU$5.75AU$3.18n/a11
Aug ’25AU$4.45
AU$4.18
-6.0%
20.5%AU$5.35AU$2.10n/a11
Jul ’25AU$4.22
AU$4.15
-1.6%
20.4%AU$5.35AU$2.10n/a11
Jun ’25AU$4.43
AU$4.08
-7.8%
19.6%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
May ’25AU$4.14
AU$4.02
-2.8%
19.4%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
Apr ’25AU$4.17
AU$4.02
-3.5%
19.4%AU$5.00AU$2.10n/a11
Mar ’25AU$4.05
AU$3.89
-4.0%
18.7%AU$4.94AU$2.10n/a11
Feb ’25AU$3.69
AU$3.42
-7.5%
16.6%AU$4.10AU$2.10n/a10
Jan ’25AU$3.53
AU$3.38
-4.2%
15.9%AU$4.10AU$2.10n/a10
Dec ’24AU$3.07
AU$3.31
+7.7%
14.6%AU$4.00AU$2.10n/a10
Nov ’24AU$2.82
AU$3.32
+17.9%
13.8%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.1511
Oct ’24AU$2.53
AU$3.35
+32.7%
13.7%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.2611
Sep ’24AU$3.02
AU$3.43
+13.9%
14.2%AU$4.00AU$2.10AU$5.0411
Aug ’24AU$3.32
AU$3.40
+2.5%
18.1%AU$4.90AU$2.10AU$4.4511
Jul ’24AU$2.86
AU$3.40
+19.0%
18.1%AU$4.90AU$2.10AU$4.2211
Jun ’24AU$3.61
AU$3.74
+3.7%
18.6%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.4310
May ’24AU$3.82
AU$3.74
-2.0%
18.6%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.1410
Apr ’24AU$3.61
AU$3.79
+5.0%
18.5%AU$5.20AU$2.50AU$4.1711
Mar ’24AU$3.51
AU$3.98
+13.5%
14.2%AU$5.20AU$3.15AU$4.0512
Feb ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.12
+5.9%
12.0%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.6912
Jan ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.08
+4.7%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.5312
Dec ’23AU$3.54
AU$4.08
+15.3%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$3.0712
Nov ’23AU$3.28
AU$4.08
+24.4%
12.5%AU$5.20AU$3.35AU$2.8212

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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