Bega Cheese Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Bega Cheese is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22.4% and 3.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 22.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.6% in 3 years.

Key information

22.4%

Earnings growth rate

22.4%

EPS growth rate

Food earnings growth	28.3%
Revenue growth rate	3.7%
Future return on equity	7.6%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	06 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

CHIA:BGA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	3,883	83	67	166	8
6/30/2026	3,753	70	60	154	9
6/30/2025	3,633	53	23	123	9
6/30/2024	3,522	31	67	134	N/A
3/31/2024	3,475	-90	-2	75	N/A
12/24/2023	3,429	-211	-71	16	N/A
9/24/2023	3,402	-220	-65	12	N/A
6/30/2023	3,376	-230	-60	8	N/A
3/31/2023	3,277	-113	-2	64	N/A
12/25/2022	3,178	4	55	119	N/A
9/25/2022	3,094	14	71	139	N/A
6/30/2022	3,010	24	86	158	N/A
3/31/2022	2,941	54	84	146	N/A
12/26/2021	2,873	84	82	133	N/A
9/26/2021	2,473	81	80	122	N/A
6/30/2021	2,073	78	79	111	N/A
3/31/2021	1,767	56	75	109	N/A
12/27/2020	1,460	34	71	107	N/A
9/27/2020	1,476	28	76	122	N/A
6/30/2020	1,493	21	81	138	N/A
3/31/2020	1,503	15	139	202	N/A
12/29/2019	1,512	8	198	267	N/A
9/29/2019	1,466	6	118	183	N/A
6/30/2019	1,420	4	38	100	N/A
3/31/2019	1,354	9	-44	13	N/A
12/30/2018	1,288	13	-126	-75	N/A
9/30/2018	1,270	21	-57	-8	N/A
6/30/2018	1,252	29	12	59	N/A
3/31/2018	1,236	86	N/A	63	N/A
12/31/2017	1,219	144	N/A	67	N/A
9/30/2017	1,223	141	N/A	68	N/A
6/30/2017	1,227	139	N/A	70	N/A
3/31/2017	1,241	84	N/A	66	N/A
12/25/2016	1,256	30	N/A	62	N/A
9/25/2016	1,226	29	N/A	60	N/A
6/30/2016	1,196	29	N/A	59	N/A
3/31/2016	1,159	25	N/A	49	N/A
12/27/2015	1,122	21	N/A	39	N/A
9/27/2015	1,117	17	N/A	11	N/A
6/30/2015	1,113	12	N/A	-17	N/A
3/31/2015	1,112	33	N/A	-17	N/A
12/28/2014	1,111	53	N/A	-16	N/A
9/28/2014	1,090	60	N/A	12	N/A
6/30/2014	1,069	66	N/A	40	N/A
3/31/2014	1,047	47	N/A	53	N/A
12/29/2013	1,025	28	N/A	65	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BGA's forecast earnings growth (22.4% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: BGA's earnings (22.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BGA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BGA's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (5.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BGA's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BGA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.6%).

Bega Cheese Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Bega Cheese Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 30, 2024

Non-Executive Director recently sold AU$179k worth of stock

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

Final dividend of AU$0.04 announced

New minor risk - Earnings quality

Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.10 (vs AU$0.76 loss in FY 2023)

Now 20% undervalued

Non-Executive Director recently sold AU$209k worth of stock

First half dividend of AU$0.04 announced

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.087 (vs AU$0.024 in 1H 2023)

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) completed the acquisition of Businesses and certain assets of Betta Milk and Meander Valley Dairy from TasFoods Limited (ASX:TFL) and The Van Diemen's Land Company.

Insufficient new directors

Bega Cheese Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 24, 2023

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) entered into an agreement to acquire Businesses and certain assets of Betta Milk and Meander Valley Dairy from TasFoods Limited (ASX:TFL) for AUD 11 million.

Bega Cheese Limited Declares Final Fully Franked Dividend, Payable on 21 September 2023

New major risk - Dividend sustainability

Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC) agreed to acquire 1 Vegemite Way, Port Melbourne site of Bega Group from Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) for approximately AUD 120 million.

Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC) agreed to acquire 1 Vegemite Way, Port Melbourne site of Bega Group from Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) for approximately AUD 120 million.

Now 20% undervalued

Now 21% undervalued

Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.024 (vs AU$0.093 in 1H 2022)

Bega Group Announces CEO Changes

Bega Cheese Limited Announces CEO Changes

Bega Cheese Limited Names Gunther Burghardt as Chief Financial Officer

Bega Cheese Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 26, 2022

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.08 (vs AU$0.29 in FY 2021)

Bega Cheese Limited Declares Fully Franked Ordinary Distribution for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2022, Payable on September 23, 2022

Insider recently bought AU$15m worth of stock

Bega Cheese Appoints Pete Findlay as Chief Operating Officer

Insider recently bought AU$15m worth of stock

Insider recently bought AU$35m worth of stock

First half 2022 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

Bega Cheese Limited Announces Fully Franked Dividend for Six Months Ended December 26, 2021, Payable on March 24, 2022

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Insider recently bought AU$108m worth of stock

Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$55k worth of stock

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.27 (vs AU$0.099 in FY 2020)

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.096 (vs AU$0.04 in 1H 2020)

Bega Cheese Limited Announces Fonterra Legal Proceedings

New 90-day high: AU$5.90

New 90-day high: AU$5.55

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) completed the acquisition of Lion-Dairy & Drinks Pty Ltd from Kirin Foods Australia Holdings Pty Ltd.

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) entered into share purchase agreement to acquire Lion-Dairy & Drinks Pty Ltd from Kirin Foods Australia Holdings Pty Ltd for approximately AUD 530 million.

The High Court of Australia Dismisses Kraft Heinz's Application for Special Leave in the Legal Proceedings Against Bega Cheese Limited

An unknown buyer acquired Coburg Facility from Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) for AUD 5 million.

The Bega Co-Operative Society Limited completed the acquisition of a 70% stake in Tatura Milk Industries Limited.

New 90-day high - AU$5.25

Earnings released

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

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