The a2 Milk Company Limited

CHIA:A2M Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$4.2b

a2 Milk Valuation

Is A2M undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of A2M when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: A2M (A$5.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$20.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: A2M is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for A2M?

Key metric: As A2M is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for A2M. This is calculated by dividing A2M's market cap by their current earnings.
What is A2M's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.4x
EarningsNZ$167.58m
Market CapNZ$4.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does A2M's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for A2M vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.6x
BGA Bega Cheese
57.8x22.5%AU$1.8b
ING Inghams Group
11.5x5.2%AU$1.2b
AAC Australian Agricultural
24.5x-27.6%AU$846.9m
CBO Cobram Estate Olives
48.5x15.4%AU$898.7m
A2M a2 Milk
27.4x12.6%AU$4.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: A2M is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the peer average (35.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does A2M's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
A2M 27.4xIndustry Avg. 15.9xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: A2M is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the Global Food industry average (15.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is A2M's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

A2M PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.4x
Fair PE Ratio29.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: A2M is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst A2M forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$5.77
AU$6.25
+8.3%
7.9%AU$7.22AU$5.78n/a9
Dec ’25AU$5.76
AU$6.23
+8.1%
7.9%AU$7.19AU$5.76n/a9
Nov ’25AU$5.71
AU$6.25
+9.5%
8.5%AU$7.25AU$5.71n/a8
Oct ’25AU$6.21
AU$6.30
+1.4%
8.6%AU$7.31AU$5.76n/a8
Sep ’25AU$5.61
AU$6.41
+14.3%
8.7%AU$7.39AU$5.82n/a7
Aug ’25AU$7.12
AU$6.38
-10.4%
11.6%AU$7.42AU$5.39n/a7
Jul ’25AU$6.66
AU$6.12
-8.0%
9.3%AU$7.36AU$5.52n/a7
Jun ’25AU$7.04
AU$6.07
-13.7%
9.5%AU$7.32AU$5.49n/a7
May ’25AU$5.97
AU$6.11
+2.3%
12.4%AU$7.55AU$4.95n/a7
Apr ’25AU$6.21
AU$6.11
-1.6%
12.4%AU$7.55AU$4.95n/a7
Mar ’25AU$5.74
AU$6.11
+6.5%
12.4%AU$7.55AU$4.95n/a7
Feb ’25AU$4.94
AU$5.61
+13.5%
18.8%AU$7.44AU$4.28n/a7
Jan ’25AU$4.26
AU$5.53
+29.8%
19.9%AU$7.38AU$3.92n/a7
Dec ’24AU$3.87
AU$5.53
+42.9%
19.9%AU$7.38AU$3.92AU$5.767
Nov ’24AU$3.89
AU$5.55
+42.8%
18.6%AU$7.35AU$4.23AU$5.717
Oct ’24AU$4.23
AU$5.67
+34.1%
17.2%AU$7.38AU$4.24AU$6.217
Sep ’24AU$4.50
AU$5.67
+26.0%
17.2%AU$7.38AU$4.24AU$5.617
Aug ’24AU$5.12
AU$6.23
+21.8%
17.6%AU$8.06AU$4.75AU$7.127
Jul ’24AU$4.90
AU$6.23
+27.4%
17.6%AU$8.06AU$4.75AU$6.667
Jun ’24AU$5.28
AU$6.14
+16.3%
14.1%AU$7.47AU$5.04AU$7.046
May ’24AU$5.45
AU$6.05
+11.0%
15.1%AU$7.42AU$4.96AU$5.976
Apr ’24AU$5.82
AU$6.42
+10.3%
16.9%AU$8.22AU$4.94AU$6.217
Mar ’24AU$6.60
AU$6.25
-5.3%
18.1%AU$8.06AU$4.53AU$5.747
Feb ’24AU$6.70
AU$6.04
-9.8%
21.6%AU$8.61AU$4.55AU$4.947
Jan ’24AU$6.86
AU$6.17
-10.0%
22.4%AU$8.85AU$4.45AU$4.267
Dec ’23AU$6.29
AU$6.04
-4.0%
22.0%AU$8.60AU$4.33AU$3.877

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 13:20
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The a2 Milk Company Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter