Costa Group Holdings Limited

ASX:CGC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.5b

Costa Group Holdings Valuation

Is CGC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CGC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CGC (A$3.19) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$2.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CGC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CGC?

Key metric: As CGC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CGC. This is calculated by dividing CGC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CGC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio68.9x
EarningsAU$21.51m
Market CapAU$1.48b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CGC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CGC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28x
ELD Elders
26.3x25.8%AU$1.2b
RIC Ridley
21.8x11.5%AU$869.0m
DBF Duxton Farms
11.2xn/aAU$58.3m
BGA Bega Cheese
52.6x22.4%AU$1.6b
CGC Costa Group Holdings
68.9x39.3%AU$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CGC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (68.9x) compared to the peer average (28.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CGC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CGC 68.9xIndustry Avg. 15.8xNo. of Companies4PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CGC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (68.9x) compared to the Global Food industry average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CGC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CGC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio68.9x
Fair PE Ratio39.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CGC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (68.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CGC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Nov ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Oct ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Sep ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Aug ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Jul ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Jun ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
May ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Apr ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Mar ’25n/a
AU$3.12
0%
6.2%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a3
Feb ’25AU$3.18
AU$3.16
-0.7%
3.7%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a10
Jan ’25AU$3.12
AU$3.16
+1.2%
3.7%AU$3.30AU$2.85n/a10
Dec ’24AU$3.11
AU$3.17
+1.8%
4.9%AU$3.50AU$2.85n/a10
Nov ’24AU$3.10
AU$3.11
+0.4%
7.3%AU$3.50AU$2.57n/a11
Oct ’24AU$3.13
AU$3.11
-0.5%
7.3%AU$3.50AU$2.57n/a11
Sep ’24AU$2.92
AU$2.94
+0.6%
10.2%AU$3.40AU$2.44n/a10
Aug ’24AU$3.30
AU$3.03
-8.1%
12.2%AU$3.50AU$2.44n/a11
Jul ’24AU$2.72
AU$2.79
+2.4%
8.0%AU$3.10AU$2.40n/a11
Jun ’24AU$2.62
AU$2.79
+6.4%
8.4%AU$3.10AU$2.40n/a10
May ’24AU$2.57
AU$2.72
+5.7%
8.5%AU$3.10AU$2.40n/a11
Apr ’24AU$2.58
AU$2.70
+4.5%
9.2%AU$3.10AU$2.30n/a12
Mar ’24AU$2.53
AU$2.67
+5.5%
9.8%AU$3.10AU$2.25n/a13
Feb ’24AU$2.87
AU$2.66
-7.3%
10.1%AU$3.10AU$2.20AU$3.1813
Jan ’24AU$2.75
AU$2.68
-2.4%
10.4%AU$3.10AU$2.20AU$3.1213
Dec ’23AU$2.66
AU$2.68
+0.9%
10.4%AU$3.10AU$2.20AU$3.1113
Nov ’23AU$2.65
AU$2.63
-0.7%
11.4%AU$3.10AU$2.20AU$3.1013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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