Costa Group Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Costa Group Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 39.3% and 6.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 32% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.3% in 3 years.

Key information

39.3%

Earnings growth rate

32.0%

EPS growth rate

Food earnings growth	16.3%
Revenue growth rate	6.2%
Future return on equity	9.3%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	16 Feb 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Will Pay A Dividend Of A$0.04

Aug 29

Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

Jun 09

Costa Group Holdings Limited's (ASX:CGC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 64% Above Its Share Price

May 22

We Think Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Apr 04

Costa Group Holdings Limited's (ASX:CGC) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Mar 20

Here's What We Like About Costa Group Holdings' (ASX:CGC) Upcoming Dividend

Mar 05

Results: Costa Group Holdings Limited Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Feb 23

Something To Consider Before Buying Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) For The 1.4% Dividend

Feb 11

Can You Imagine How Costa Group Holdings' (ASX:CGC) Shareholders Feel About The 57% Share Price Increase?

Nov 21

Is Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) A Risky Investment?

Sep 07

Did You Participate In Any Of Costa Group Holdings' (ASX:CGC) Respectable 74% Return?

Aug 21

Should You Review Recent Insider Transactions At Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC)?

Aug 03

The Trends At Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) That You Should Know About

Jul 16

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:CGC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	1,773	87	N/A	192	1
12/31/2025	1,647	69	N/A	216	2
12/31/2024	1,548	61	N/A	200	3
12/31/2023	1,458	-2	N/A	129	3
7/2/2023	1,420	22	65	155	N/A
4/2/2023	1,389	28	48	147	N/A
1/1/2023	1,358	34	32	138	N/A
10/1/2022	1,337	38	26	144	N/A
7/3/2022	1,317	42	20	149	N/A
4/3/2022	1,269	42	23	151	N/A
12/26/2021	1,221	41	26	154	N/A
9/26/2021	1,193	48	55	163	N/A
6/27/2021	1,165	55	84	172	N/A
3/27/2021	1,165	58	87	170	N/A
12/27/2020	1,165	61	90	168	N/A
9/27/2020	1,126	14	42	143	N/A
6/28/2020	1,087	-33	-5	118	N/A
3/28/2020	1,067	-35	-27	108	N/A
12/29/2019	1,048	-36	-49	99	N/A
6/30/2019	1,051	45	-65	68	N/A
3/31/2019	1,021	45	-44	83	N/A
12/30/2018	990	45	-24	97	N/A
7/1/2018	1,002	115	15	104	N/A
4/1/2018	977	112	9	88	N/A
12/31/2017	953	108	4	71	N/A
9/30/2017	931	83	18	80	N/A
6/25/2017	909	58	N/A	89	N/A
3/25/2017	884	49	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/25/2016	859	41	N/A	89	N/A
9/25/2016	840	33	N/A	76	N/A
6/26/2016	822	25	N/A	63	N/A
3/26/2016	802	16	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/27/2015	783	8	N/A	34	N/A
9/27/2015	759	4	N/A	31	N/A
6/28/2015	736	0	N/A	28	N/A
3/28/2015	723	-7	N/A	34	N/A
12/28/2014	710	-13	N/A	40	N/A
9/28/2014	710	-8	N/A	40	N/A
6/29/2014	711	-2	N/A	39	N/A
6/30/2013	597	-39	N/A	11	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CGC's forecast earnings growth (39.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2.2%).

Earnings vs Market: CGC's earnings (39.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CGC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CGC's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CGC's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CGC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/02/26 06:05
End of Day Share Price	2024/02/21 00:00
Earnings	2023/07/02
Annual Earnings	2023/01/01

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Costa Group Holdings Limited is covered by 13 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Russell Wright	Barclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Jonathan Snape	Bell Potter
Citi Research	Citigroup Inc

Costa Group Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Price target increased by 8.9% to AU$3.03

Price target increased by 7.1% to AU$2.91

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17%, revenue upgraded

Price target decreased to AU$2.63

Recent updates

Paine Schwartz Food Chain Fund VI a fund managed by Paine Schwartz Partners, LLC, Driscoll's, Inc. and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation completed the acquisition of remaining 85.16% stake in Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC).

Paine Schwartz Food Chain Fund VI a fund managed by Paine Schwartz Partners, LLC, Driscoll's, Inc. and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation completed the acquisition of remaining 85.16% stake in Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC).

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.055 (vs AU$0.081 in 1H 2022)

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Price target increased by 8.9% to AU$3.03

Costa Group Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 25, 2023

Paine Schwartz Partners, LLC made unsolicited, confidential, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire remaining 85.16% stake in Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) for AUD 1.4 billion.

Price target increased by 7.1% to AU$2.91

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 24%

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.05 per share at 3.4% yield

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17%, revenue upgraded

Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations

Costa Group Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 21, 2023

Price target decreased to AU$2.63

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Price target decreased to AU$2.98

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Costa Group Holdings Limited Announces CEO Changes, with Effect from 26 September 2022

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.04 per share

Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Will Pay A Dividend Of A$0.04

First half 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Costa Group Holdings Limited Announces Dividend for the Period of Six Months Ended July 3, 2022, Payable on 6 October, 2022

Price target decreased to AU$3.35

Costa Group Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Aug 26, 2022

Costa Group Holdings Limited Declares Fully Franked Final Dividend for the Second Half of CY2021

Costa Group Holdings Limited Declares Fully Franked Final Dividend for the Second Half of CY2021

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.05 per share

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Consensus forecasts updated

Costa Group Holdings Limited Declares Ordinary Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 26, 2021, Payable on 7 April 2022

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$57k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.04 per share

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.093 (vs AU$0.11 in 1H 2020)

Costa Group Holdings Limited Confirms Earnings Guidance for the Calendar Year 2021

Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) completed the acquisition of Business and Assets of 2PH Farms Pty Ltd.

Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) entered into binding agreement to acquire Business and Assets of 2PH Farms Pty Ltd for approximately AUD 200 million.

Costa Group Holdings Limited Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Half and Full Year of 2021

Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Consensus forecasts updated

Price target decreased to AU$4.25

Costa Group Holdings Limited's (ASX:CGC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 64% Above Its Share Price

We Think Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Costa Group Holdings Limited's (ASX:CGC) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) signed a conditional agreement to acquire farming operations of KW Orchards citrus farm.

Here's What We Like About Costa Group Holdings' (ASX:CGC) Upcoming Dividend

Upcoming Dividend of AU$0.05 Per Share

Results: Costa Group Holdings Limited Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Revenue and earnings beat expectations

Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS AU$0.15 (vs AU$0.11 loss in FY 2019)

Price target raised to AU$4.26

New 90-day high: AU$4.53

Something To Consider Before Buying Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) For The 1.4% Dividend

Estimating The Fair Value Of Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC)

Costa Group Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Feb 22, 2021

What Kind Of Shareholders Own Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC)?

New 90-day high: AU$4.17

Here's Why Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Will Costa Group Holdings (ASX:CGC) Multiply In Value Going Forward?

Can You Imagine How Costa Group Holdings' (ASX:CGC) Shareholders Feel About The 57% Share Price Increase?

Costa Group Holdings Limited Announces Appointment of Sean Hallahan as New CEO

New 90-day high: AU$3.93

New 90-day high: AU$3.73

Costa Group Holdings Limited (ASX:CGC) signed an agreement to acquire citrus and wine assets from Murray River Organics Group Limited (ASX:MRG) for AUD 4.5 million.

Price target raised to AU$3.59

Upcoming Dividend of AU$0.04 Per Share