Ampol Limited

CHIA:ALD Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.5b

Ampol Valuation

Is ALD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALD (A$26.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$54.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALD?

Key metric: As ALD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALD. This is calculated by dividing ALD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.1x
EarningsAU$705.20m
Market CapAU$6.45b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.7x
VEA Viva Energy Group
25.2x26.3%AU$4.1b
WHC Whitehaven Coal
14.1x20.7%AU$5.0b
YAL Yancoal Australia
6.5x0.6%AU$8.3b
NHC New Hope
8.9x0.8%AU$4.2b
ALD Ampol
9.1x8.5%AU$6.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FAR FAR
0.8xn/aUS$30.05m
IKW Ikwezi Mining
1.7xn/aUS$12.55m
XST Xstate Resources
0.7xn/aUS$1.89m
No more companies available in this PE range
ALD 9.1xIndustry Avg. 11.3xNo. of Companies4PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.1x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$26.93
AU$32.79
+21.7%
5.6%AU$36.00AU$30.00n/a11
Dec ’25AU$29.18
AU$33.15
+13.6%
5.7%AU$36.50AU$30.10n/a11
Nov ’25AU$28.36
AU$33.06
+16.6%
5.7%AU$36.50AU$30.10n/a11
Oct ’25AU$29.91
AU$34.47
+15.3%
5.0%AU$36.90AU$31.60n/a12
Sep ’25AU$28.97
AU$34.77
+20.0%
4.3%AU$36.90AU$31.60n/a12
Aug ’25AU$33.72
AU$35.55
+5.4%
4.0%AU$37.80AU$33.00n/a12
Jul ’25AU$32.62
AU$38.05
+16.6%
7.2%AU$43.60AU$34.40n/a12
Jun ’25AU$34.90
AU$38.79
+11.1%
7.7%AU$43.60AU$34.40n/a12
May ’25AU$35.47
AU$38.79
+9.4%
7.7%AU$43.60AU$34.40n/a12
Apr ’25AU$39.64
AU$38.50
-2.9%
7.2%AU$43.00AU$34.40n/a12
Mar ’25AU$37.38
AU$38.50
+3.0%
7.2%AU$43.00AU$34.40n/a12
Feb ’25AU$36.60
AU$37.53
+2.6%
7.5%AU$43.60AU$34.40n/a11
Jan ’25AU$36.14
AU$37.45
+3.6%
7.4%AU$43.60AU$33.90n/a11
Dec ’24AU$34.57
AU$37.45
+8.3%
7.4%AU$43.60AU$33.90AU$29.1811
Nov ’24AU$32.66
AU$37.45
+14.7%
7.4%AU$43.60AU$33.90AU$28.3611
Oct ’24AU$33.85
AU$36.82
+8.8%
6.3%AU$41.00AU$32.60AU$29.9111
Sep ’24AU$34.54
AU$36.77
+6.5%
6.6%AU$41.00AU$32.60AU$28.9710
Aug ’24AU$33.06
AU$36.21
+9.5%
7.4%AU$43.00AU$33.30AU$33.7211
Jul ’24AU$29.99
AU$35.88
+19.6%
5.2%AU$39.45AU$33.31AU$32.6211
Jun ’24AU$31.94
AU$36.26
+13.5%
5.1%AU$39.45AU$33.31AU$34.9011
May ’24AU$29.74
AU$35.82
+20.4%
6.4%AU$39.45AU$30.98AU$35.4712
Apr ’24AU$30.42
AU$35.63
+17.1%
5.8%AU$39.45AU$30.98AU$39.6412
Mar ’24AU$33.24
AU$35.82
+7.8%
5.9%AU$39.50AU$30.98AU$37.3812
Feb ’24AU$30.62
AU$35.10
+14.6%
8.1%AU$39.50AU$30.14AU$36.6011
Jan ’24AU$28.33
AU$34.63
+22.2%
8.2%AU$38.84AU$30.04AU$36.1412
Dec ’23AU$28.36
AU$34.80
+22.7%
8.5%AU$38.84AU$30.04AU$34.5712

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 09:07
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ampol Limited is covered by 24 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Chris SavageBell Potter