Yancoal Australia Valuation

Is YAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YAL (A$6.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$10.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YAL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YAL?

Key metric: As YAL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YAL. This is calculated by dividing YAL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YAL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.6x
Earnings	AU$1.27b
Market Cap	AU$8.37b

YAL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.7x
PEG Ratio	-6.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.8x
WHC Whitehaven Coal	15.7x	17.8%	AU$5.6b
NHC New Hope	8.4x	-1.3%	AU$4.0b
BOE Boss Energy	27.2x	32.1%	AU$1.2b
PDN Paladin Energy	28.1x	30.1%	AU$2.3b
YAL Yancoal Australia	6.6x	-1.1%	AU$8.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the peer average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
FAR FAR	0.8x	n/a	US$29.44m
IKW Ikwezi Mining	1.7x	n/a	US$12.55m
XST Xstate Resources	0.7x	n/a	US$1.89m

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.6x
Fair PE Ratio	10.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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