We’re definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Anyone who held Xstate Resources Limited (ASX:XST) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 93% in that time. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 70% over the last twelve months. On top of that, the share price has dropped a further 25% in a month. This could be related to the recent financial results – you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don’t have to lose the lesson.
Xstate Resources recorded just AU$131,173 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn’t really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. We can’t help wondering why it’s publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? As a result, we think it’s unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Xstate Resources will discover or develop fossil fuel before too long.
Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. The is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Xstate Resources has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.
Xstate Resources had net debt of AU$3,557 when it last reported in December 2018, according to our data. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But with the share price diving 40% per year, over 5 years, it’s probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Xstate Resources’s cash and debt levels have changed over time.
In reality it’s hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. You can click here to see if there are insiders selling.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 11% in the last year, Xstate Resources shareholders lost 70%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 40% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before spending more time on Xstate Resources it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.