Viva Energy Group Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week saw the newest interim earnings release from Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Viva Energy Group delivered a statutory loss of AU$0.12 per share. Revenues of AU$15b did beat expectations by 8.8% though. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Viva Energy Group is for revenues of AU$29.5b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 4.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 58% to AU$0.092. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$29.6b and losses of AU$0.00053 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Viva Energy Group even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a sizeable expansion in per-share losses.

Check out our latest analysis for Viva Energy Group

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of AU$2.57, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Viva Energy Group analyst has a price target of AU$3.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$1.90. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Viva Energy Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Viva Energy Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Viva Energy Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$2.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Viva Energy Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Viva Energy Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.