Stock Analysis

Here's Why We Think Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

ASX:VEA
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Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

If this kind of company isn't your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.

View our latest analysis for Viva Energy Group

Viva Energy Group's Improving Profits

In the last three years Viva Energy Group's earnings per share took off; so much so that it's a bit disingenuous to use these figures to try and deduce long term estimates. As a result, we'll zoom in on growth over the last year, instead. In impressive fashion, Viva Energy Group's EPS grew from AU$0.15 to AU$0.33, over the previous 12 months. It's not often a company can achieve year-on-year growth of 129%. Shareholders will be hopeful that this is a sign of the company reaching an inflection point.

It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. While we note Viva Energy Group achieved similar EBIT margins to last year, revenue grew by a solid 66% to AU$26b. That's a real positive.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:VEA Earnings and Revenue History June 7th 2023

While we live in the present moment, there's little doubt that the future matters most in the investment decision process. So why not check this interactive chart depicting future EPS estimates, for Viva Energy Group?

Are Viva Energy Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. So it is good to see that Viva Energy Group insiders have a significant amount of capital invested in the stock. Indeed, they hold AU$29m worth of its stock. That shows significant buy-in, and may indicate conviction in the business strategy. While their ownership only accounts for 0.6%, this is still a considerable amount at stake to encourage the business to maintain a strategy that will deliver value to shareholders.

Is Viva Energy Group Worth Keeping An Eye On?

Viva Energy Group's earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. That EPS growth certainly is attention grabbing, and the large insider ownership only serves to further stoke our interest. The hope is, of course, that the strong growth marks a fundamental improvement in the business economics. So at the surface level, Viva Energy Group is worth putting on your watchlist; after all, shareholders do well when the market underestimates fast growing companies. It's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Viva Energy Group (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

There's always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Viva Energy Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.