We're Hopeful That Tlou Energy (ASX:TOU) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

By
Simply Wall St
Published
August 02, 2021
ASX:TOU
Source: Shutterstock

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. Indeed, Tlou Energy (ASX:TOU) stock is up 123% in the last year, providing strong gains for shareholders. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

Given its strong share price performance, we think it's worthwhile for Tlou Energy shareholders to consider whether its cash burn is concerning. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

View our latest analysis for Tlou Energy

How Long Is Tlou Energy's Cash Runway?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. When Tlou Energy last reported its balance sheet in December 2020, it had zero debt and cash worth AU$3.0m. In the last year, its cash burn was AU$2.7m. That means it had a cash runway of around 13 months as of December 2020. While that cash runway isn't too concerning, sensible holders would be peering into the distance, and considering what happens if the company runs out of cash. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:TOU Debt to Equity History August 3rd 2021

How Is Tlou Energy's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Tlou Energy isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. The 58% reduction in its cash burn over the last twelve months may be good for protecting the balance sheet but it hardly points to imminent growth. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Tlou Energy To Raise More Cash For Growth?

There's no doubt Tlou Energy's rapidly reducing cash burn brings comfort, but even if it's only hypothetical, it's always worth asking how easily it could raise more money to fund further growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Since it has a market capitalisation of AU$47m, Tlou Energy's AU$2.7m in cash burn equates to about 5.8% of its market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

Is Tlou Energy's Cash Burn A Worry?

Tlou Energy appears to be in pretty good health when it comes to its cash burn situation. One the one hand we have its solid cash burn reduction, while on the other it can also boast very strong cash burn relative to its market cap. While we're the kind of investors who are always a bit concerned about the risks involved with cash burning companies, the metrics we have discussed in this article leave us relatively comfortable about Tlou Energy's situation. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 5 warning signs for Tlou Energy (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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