Central Petroleum Limited's (ASX:CTP) Stock Has Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Strong: Is The Market Wrong?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Central Petroleum's (ASX:CTP) recent performance, when its stock has declined 27% over the past three months. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on Central Petroleum's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Central Petroleum

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Central Petroleum is:

51% = AU$17m ÷ AU$34m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.51 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Central Petroleum's Earnings Growth And 51% ROE

To begin with, Central Petroleum has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 15% which is quite remarkable. Under the circumstances, Central Petroleum's considerable five year net income growth of 28% was to be expected.

Next, on comparing Central Petroleum's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 33% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Central Petroleum's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Central Petroleum Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Given that Central Petroleum doesn't pay any regular dividends to its shareholders, we infer that the company has been reinvesting all of its profits to grow its business.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Central Petroleum's performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.