Beach Energy (ASX:BPT): Assessing Valuation After Production Growth and Waitsia Gas Plant Launch Progress

Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) just shared its first quarter results, revealing an 8% jump in production along with double-digit growth in both sales volumes and revenue as the Waitsia Gas Plant approaches its critical start-up phase.

See our latest analysis for Beach Energy.

Beach Energy’s recent production milestone and progress at Waitsia have sparked renewed market interest, reflected in a 4.4% jump in share price over the past day and 6.8% over the past week. However, with a one-year total shareholder return of -0.3% and a three-year return of -13.9%, momentum is only just starting to recover as the market assesses whether these gains can be sustained or if further growth is on the way.

If these operational updates have you scanning the horizon for new opportunities, it might be a great moment to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With production rising, Waitsia nearing launch, and analyst forecasts turning more positive, is Beach Energy’s recent momentum an invitation to buy at a discount, or has the market already factored in the next phase of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.6% Undervalued

Beach Energy's fair value estimate sits slightly above the last close, suggesting only a modest gap remains as analysts weigh up the company's next growth phase. Is there a hidden catalyst in play that could drive future upside? The stage is set for an inflection point as Waitsia comes online and new earnings dynamics shape expectations.

The ramp-up and commissioning of the Waitsia Gas Project, positioning Beach Energy as a leading LNG exporter, is expected to significantly boost export volumes and enable higher realized pricing via exposure to international LNG markets. This may provide a structural uplift to revenue and EBITDA margins starting late FY'26 and beyond.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what high-stakes financial assumptions set the stage for this slim undervaluation call? The full narrative contains bold long-term forecasts, dramatic swings in future margins, and a vision for a profit turnaround that could surprise many. Don't miss the inside view behind those headline numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $1.23 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, declining reserves and operational delivery risks could quickly shift sentiment. This could put Beach Energy’s recovery narrative to the test.

Find out about the key risks to this Beach Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Beach Energy Narrative

If the story does not align with your outlook or you prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Beach Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for More Compelling Investment Angles?

Act now and get ahead of the crowd by tapping into high-potential stock ideas you will not want to overlook. Savvy investors make the most of every opportunity.

• Secure better income and stability by tracking these 17 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, delivering yields above 3%. This is perfect for building a dependable portfolio foundation.
• Fuel your curiosity for transformative technology with these 24 AI penny stocks, shaping the AI revolution through innovative business models and advanced software.
• Catalyze your growth strategy by reviewing these 873 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where strong cash flows and market mispricing present unique value opportunities right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com