Stock Analysis

Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) shareholders are up 11% this past week, but still in the red over the last three years

ASX:ZIP
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Zip Co Limited (ASX:ZIP) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last week. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. To wit, the share price sky-dived 82% in that time. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

While the stock has risen 11% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

View our latest analysis for Zip Co

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SWOT Analysis for Zip Co

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
  • Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.

Given that Zip Co didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over three years, Zip Co grew revenue at 53% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So why has the share priced crashed 22% per year, in the same time? You'd want to take a close look at the balance sheet, as well as the losses. Sometimes fast revenue growth doesn't lead to profits. If the company is low on cash, it may have to raise capital soon.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:ZIP Earnings and Revenue Growth May 16th 2023

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Different Perspective

Zip Co shareholders are down 40% for the year, but the market itself is up 5.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Zip Co better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Zip Co that you should be aware of.

We will like Zip Co better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Zip Co might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.