Investors are selling off Prospa Group (ASX:PGL), lack of profits no doubt contribute to shareholders one-year loss

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Prospa Group Limited (ASX:PGL) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 47%. That's well below the market decline of 0.8%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 19% in the last three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 22% in the last three months. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

With the stock having lost 11% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for Prospa Group

Prospa Group wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last year Prospa Group saw its revenue grow by 28%. We think that is pretty nice growth. Meanwhile, the share price is down 47% over twelve months, which is disappointing given the progress made. You might even wonder if the share price was previously over-hyped. However, that's in the past now, and it's the future that matters most.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Prospa Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Prospa Group shares, which cost holders 47%, while the market was up about 0.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Shareholders have lost 6% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Prospa Group you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.