Helia Group Limited

ASX:HLI Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.2b

Helia Group Valuation

Is HLI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HLI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HLI (A$4.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$14.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HLI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HLI?

Key metric: As HLI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HLI. This is calculated by dividing HLI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HLI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.4x
EarningsAU$224.62m
Market CapAU$1.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HLI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HLI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.5x
LFG Liberty Financial Group
8.4x10.3%AU$1.0b
PPM Pepper Money
5.6x9.4%AU$589.8m
AFG Australian Finance Group
14.2xn/aAU$417.0m
RMC Resimac Group
9.7x22.7%AU$336.0m
HLI Helia Group
5.4x-34.1%AU$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HLI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Diversified Financial Industry?

25 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HLI 5.4xIndustry Avg. 15.7xNo. of Companies75PE01224364860+
25 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the Global Diversified Financial industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HLI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HLI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.4x
Fair PE Ratio9.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HLI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.37
AU$4.06
-7.1%
4.8%AU$4.29AU$3.80n/a4
Nov ’25AU$4.19
AU$4.06
-3.1%
4.8%AU$4.29AU$3.80n/a4
Oct ’25AU$4.06
AU$3.99
-1.8%
4.7%AU$4.29AU$3.80n/a4
Sep ’25AU$4.10
AU$3.99
-2.7%
4.7%AU$4.29AU$3.80n/a4
Aug ’25AU$4.00
AU$4.02
+0.5%
8.0%AU$4.53AU$3.65n/a4
Jul ’25AU$3.86
AU$4.02
+4.1%
8.0%AU$4.53AU$3.65n/a4
Jun ’25AU$4.12
AU$4.08
-1.0%
6.5%AU$4.53AU$3.88n/a4
May ’25AU$3.83
AU$4.07
+6.2%
6.1%AU$4.47AU$3.80n/a4
Apr ’25AU$3.91
AU$4.07
+4.0%
6.1%AU$4.47AU$3.80n/a4
Mar ’25AU$4.19
AU$4.07
-2.9%
6.1%AU$4.47AU$3.80n/a4
Feb ’25AU$4.79
AU$3.69
-22.9%
10.3%AU$4.09AU$3.08n/a4
Jan ’25AU$4.35
AU$3.69
-15.1%
10.3%AU$4.09AU$3.08n/a4
Dec ’24AU$4.14
AU$3.69
-10.8%
10.3%AU$4.09AU$3.08n/a4
Nov ’24AU$3.59
AU$3.55
-1.0%
9.9%AU$4.04AU$3.10AU$4.194
Oct ’24AU$3.49
AU$3.55
+1.8%
9.9%AU$4.04AU$3.10AU$4.064
Sep ’24AU$3.98
AU$3.55
-10.9%
9.7%AU$4.02AU$3.10AU$4.104
Aug ’24AU$3.82
AU$3.31
-13.5%
15.3%AU$4.02AU$2.60AU$4.004
Jul ’24AU$3.46
AU$3.25
-6.1%
15.6%AU$4.02AU$2.60AU$3.864
Jun ’24AU$3.35
AU$3.24
-3.4%
15.7%AU$4.02AU$2.60AU$4.124
May ’24AU$3.20
AU$3.17
-0.9%
15.4%AU$3.88AU$2.50AU$3.834
Apr ’24AU$2.87
AU$3.17
+10.5%
15.4%AU$3.88AU$2.50AU$3.914
Mar ’24AU$3.42
AU$3.17
-7.3%
15.4%AU$3.88AU$2.50AU$4.194
Feb ’24AU$2.82
AU$2.96
+5.0%
13.9%AU$3.56AU$2.40AU$4.794
Jan ’24AU$2.75
AU$2.95
+7.2%
14.5%AU$3.56AU$2.35AU$4.354
Dec ’23AU$2.73
AU$2.94
+7.7%
14.2%AU$3.53AU$2.35AU$4.144
Nov ’23AU$2.85
AU$2.94
+3.1%
14.2%AU$3.53AU$2.35AU$3.594

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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