ASX Limited's (ASX:ASX) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

ASX Limited's (ASX:ASX) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ASX certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for ASX

Keen to find out how analysts think ASX's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, ASX would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 43% gain to the company's bottom line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 3.4% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 3.3% per year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 17% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that ASX is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On ASX's P/E

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of ASX's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for ASX that you need to take into consideration.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.