Ariadne Australia (ASX:ARA) shareholders have endured a 40% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

Simply Wall St

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Ariadne Australia Limited (ASX:ARA) shareholders, since the share price is down 42% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 40%. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 16% in thirty days.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Ariadne Australia moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.

Arguably the revenue decline of 17% per year has people thinking Ariadne Australia is shrinking. After all, if revenue keeps shrinking, it may be difficult to find earnings growth in the future.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:ARA Earnings and Revenue Growth July 18th 2025

If you are thinking of buying or selling Ariadne Australia stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Ariadne Australia, it has a TSR of -40% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Ariadne Australia shareholders are down 17% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 11%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Ariadne Australia is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Of course Ariadne Australia may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Ariadne Australia might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.