Lottery Valuation

Is TLC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TLC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TLC (A$5.09) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$4.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TLC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TLC?

Key metric: As TLC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TLC. This is calculated by dividing TLC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TLC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	27.4x
Earnings	AU$414.00m
Market Cap	AU$11.33b

TLC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17.1x
PEG Ratio	5.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TLC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TLC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	32.5x
ALL Aristocrat Leisure	33.3x	9.4%	AU$43.4b
JIN Jumbo Interactive	19.5x	7.4%	AU$844.0m
AGI Ainsworth Game Technology	46.2x	11.4%	AU$252.6m
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises	31x	19.5%	AU$2.9b
TLC Lottery	27.4x	4.6%	AU$11.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TLC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the peer average (32.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TLC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Hospitality Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TLC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the Oceanic Hospitality industry average (24x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TLC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TLC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	27.4x
Fair PE Ratio	28.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TLC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TLC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$5.09	AU$5.37 +5.6%	4.2%	AU$5.70	AU$5.00	n/a	14
Nov ’25	AU$5.00	AU$5.38 +7.6%	4.0%	AU$5.70	AU$5.00	n/a	14
Oct ’25	AU$5.09	AU$5.36 +5.3%	3.9%	AU$5.70	AU$5.00	n/a	14
Sep ’25	AU$4.99	AU$5.30 +6.3%	5.6%	AU$5.70	AU$4.50	n/a	15
Aug ’25	AU$4.92	AU$5.43 +10.4%	7.3%	AU$6.00	AU$4.50	n/a	15
Jul ’25	AU$5.08	AU$5.45 +7.2%	7.3%	AU$6.00	AU$4.50	n/a	14
Jun ’25	AU$4.87	AU$5.41 +11.2%	7.2%	AU$6.00	AU$4.50	n/a	14
May ’25	AU$4.87	AU$5.41 +11.0%	7.1%	AU$6.00	AU$4.50	n/a	14
Apr ’25	AU$5.15	AU$5.40 +4.9%	7.1%	AU$6.00	AU$4.50	n/a	14
Mar ’25	AU$5.11	AU$5.40 +5.7%	7.1%	AU$6.00	AU$4.50	n/a	14
Feb ’25	AU$5.02	AU$5.27 +5.1%	4.3%	AU$5.70	AU$5.00	n/a	13
Jan ’25	AU$4.84	AU$5.33 +10.2%	4.6%	AU$5.70	AU$4.95	n/a	13
Dec ’24	AU$4.52	AU$5.37 +18.9%	4.8%	AU$5.70	AU$4.95	n/a	13
Nov ’24	AU$4.59	AU$5.42 +18.1%	4.8%	AU$5.95	AU$5.00	AU$5.00	13
Oct ’24	AU$4.72	AU$5.41 +14.7%	4.7%	AU$5.95	AU$5.00	AU$5.09	14
Sep ’24	AU$5.05	AU$5.39 +6.7%	4.9%	AU$5.95	AU$5.00	AU$4.99	15
Aug ’24	AU$5.23	AU$5.33 +1.9%	8.6%	AU$6.00	AU$4.17	AU$4.92	14
Jul ’24	AU$5.13	AU$5.31 +3.5%	9.2%	AU$6.00	AU$4.17	AU$5.08	13
Jun ’24	AU$5.03	AU$5.21 +3.6%	11.4%	AU$6.00	AU$3.90	AU$4.87	14
May ’24	AU$5.02	AU$5.15 +2.6%	11.2%	AU$6.00	AU$3.90	AU$4.87	13
Apr ’24	AU$5.12	AU$5.16 +0.8%	11.3%	AU$6.00	AU$3.90	AU$5.15	13
Mar ’24	AU$5.08	AU$5.14 +1.2%	11.5%	AU$6.00	AU$3.90	AU$5.11	13
Feb ’24	AU$4.86	AU$4.78 -1.6%	11.8%	AU$5.70	AU$3.70	AU$5.02	14
Jan ’24	AU$4.48	AU$4.75 +5.9%	11.8%	AU$5.70	AU$3.70	AU$4.84	14
Dec ’23	AU$4.64	AU$4.73 +2.0%	12.0%	AU$5.70	AU$3.70	AU$4.52	14
Nov ’23	AU$4.33	AU$4.67 +7.9%	12.8%	AU$5.50	AU$3.50	AU$4.59	14

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.