The Lottery Corporation Limited

ASX:TLC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$11.0b

Lottery Valuation

Is TLC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TLC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TLC (A$5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$4.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TLC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TLC?

Key metric: As TLC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TLC. This is calculated by dividing TLC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TLC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.9x
EarningsAU$414.00m
Market CapAU$11.01b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TLC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TLC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33x
ALL Aristocrat Leisure
32.8x9.4%AU$42.8b
JIN Jumbo Interactive
20x7.4%AU$865.1m
AGI Ainsworth Game Technology
49.9x11.4%AU$272.8m
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises
29.2x19.5%AU$2.7b
TLC Lottery
26.9x4.4%AU$11.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TLC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the peer average (33x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TLC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TLC 26.9xIndustry Avg. 20.5xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TLC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the Global Hospitality industry average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TLC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TLC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.9x
Fair PE Ratio28.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TLC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TLC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$5.00
AU$5.42
+8.5%
4.3%AU$5.80AU$5.00n/a14
Dec ’25AU$5.18
AU$5.42
+4.7%
4.3%AU$5.80AU$5.00n/a14
Nov ’25AU$5.00
AU$5.38
+7.6%
4.0%AU$5.70AU$5.00n/a14
Oct ’25AU$5.09
AU$5.36
+5.3%
3.9%AU$5.70AU$5.00n/a14
Sep ’25AU$4.99
AU$5.30
+6.3%
5.6%AU$5.70AU$4.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$4.92
AU$5.43
+10.4%
7.3%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a15
Jul ’25AU$5.08
AU$5.45
+7.2%
7.3%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a14
Jun ’25AU$4.87
AU$5.41
+11.2%
7.2%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a14
May ’25AU$4.87
AU$5.41
+11.0%
7.1%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a14
Apr ’25AU$5.15
AU$5.40
+4.9%
7.1%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a14
Mar ’25AU$5.11
AU$5.40
+5.7%
7.1%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a14
Feb ’25AU$5.02
AU$5.27
+5.1%
4.3%AU$5.70AU$5.00n/a13
Jan ’25AU$4.84
AU$5.33
+10.2%
4.6%AU$5.70AU$4.95n/a13
Dec ’24AU$4.52
AU$5.37
+18.9%
4.8%AU$5.70AU$4.95AU$5.1813
Nov ’24AU$4.59
AU$5.42
+18.1%
4.8%AU$5.95AU$5.00AU$5.0013
Oct ’24AU$4.72
AU$5.41
+14.7%
4.7%AU$5.95AU$5.00AU$5.0914
Sep ’24AU$5.05
AU$5.39
+6.7%
4.9%AU$5.95AU$5.00AU$4.9915
Aug ’24AU$5.23
AU$5.33
+1.9%
8.6%AU$6.00AU$4.17AU$4.9214
Jul ’24AU$5.13
AU$5.31
+3.5%
9.2%AU$6.00AU$4.17AU$5.0813
Jun ’24AU$5.03
AU$5.21
+3.6%
11.4%AU$6.00AU$3.90AU$4.8714
May ’24AU$5.02
AU$5.15
+2.6%
11.2%AU$6.00AU$3.90AU$4.8713
Apr ’24AU$5.12
AU$5.16
+0.8%
11.3%AU$6.00AU$3.90AU$5.1513
Mar ’24AU$5.08
AU$5.14
+1.2%
11.5%AU$6.00AU$3.90AU$5.1113
Feb ’24AU$4.86
AU$4.78
-1.6%
11.8%AU$5.70AU$3.70AU$5.0214
Jan ’24AU$4.48
AU$4.75
+5.9%
11.8%AU$5.70AU$3.70AU$4.8414
Dec ’23AU$4.64
AU$4.73
+2.0%
12.0%AU$5.70AU$3.70AU$4.5214

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 15:30
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Lottery Corporation Limited is covered by 26 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Nicholas McGarrigleBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited