The Lottery Corporation Limited

ASX:TLC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$12.1b

Lottery Past Earnings Performance

Past criteria checks 3/6

Lottery has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 3.7%, while the Hospitality industry saw earnings growing at 11.6% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 3.4% per year. Lottery's return on equity is 106.9%, and it has net margins of 9.6%.

Key information

3.75%

Earnings growth rate

3.76%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality Industry Growth-5.40%
Revenue growth rate3.38%
Return on equity106.92%
Net Margin9.58%
Next Earnings Update19 Aug 2026

Recent past performance updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update Jun 26

TLC: Licence Extension And Earnings Assumptions Will Shape A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their valuation for Lottery, with the fair value estimate moving from A$5.63 to A$5.82 as updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E filter through their models. What’s in the News for Lottery The Lottery Corporation held an Analyst/Investor Day, giving the market an opportunity to hear updated views and assumptions that feed into valuation work on the stock.
Narrative Update Feb 13

TLC: Leadership Transition And Earnings Assumptions Will Shape A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target on Lottery slightly higher to around A$5.63. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E after recent research updates.
Narrative Update Jan 29

TLC: Leadership Shift And Refined Assumptions Will Guide A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on Lottery, reflecting a modest adjustment to fair value and revenue growth assumptions, while still keeping their view consistent with recent research coverage updates on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Lottery highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with pricing updates reflecting changing views on how much investors are willing to pay for the company relative to its growth and execution track record.
Narrative Update Jan 15

TLC: Leadership Transition And Refined Assumptions Will Shape A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target on Lottery slightly lower to around $5.65 from about $5.75, citing incremental adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, along with a modestly higher future P/E multiple in their models. What's in the News Lottery appointed Mr. Wayne Pickup as Chief Executive Officer and observer to the Board, with a plan for him to become a director and Managing Director once administrative steps are completed (company announcement).
Analysis Article Dec 08

The Lottery Corporation Limited's (ASX:TLC) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 21x, you may consider...
Analysis Article Nov 03

Are The Lottery Corporation Limited (ASX:TLC) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Lottery fair value estimate is AU$4.03 Current share price of...
Narrative Update Aug 27

Digital Adoption Will Modernize Lottery Customer Engagement

The consensus price target for Lottery has been modestly increased to A$5.75, as a higher future P/E multiple more than offset slightly lower revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News The Lottery Corporation Limited announced a fully franked ordinary dividend of AUD 0.085 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Analysis Article Aug 19

The Lottery Corporation Limited's (ASX:TLC) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

ASX:TLC 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Lottery's Fair Values from the Community and select yours With a...
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New Narrative Feb 09

Acceleration Of Powerball Jackpots Will Attract More Customers

Digital expansion and customer-centric initiatives, like game innovation, are driving revenue growth by attracting younger demographics and enhancing engagement.

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown

How Lottery makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.


Earnings and Revenue History

ASX:TLC Revenue, expenses and earnings (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsG+A ExpensesR&D Expenses
31 Dec 253,7883637870
30 Sep 253,7703647710
30 Jun 253,7533667550
31 Mar 253,8233697510
31 Dec 243,8933727530
30 Sep 243,9463937630
30 Jun 243,9984147720
31 Mar 243,7393627170
31 Dec 233,4813096620
30 Sep 233,4972876490
30 Jun 233,5142656350
31 Mar 233,5242936250
31 Dec 223,5353216150
30 Sep 223,4073345920
30 Jun 223,2793475700
31 Mar 223,1433075600
31 Dec 213,0072675500
30 Sep 212,9793335410
30 Jun 212,9513995320
30 Jun 202,9204504840
30 Jun 192,8684304790

Quality Earnings: TLC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TLC's current net profit margins (9.6%) are higher than last year (9.6%).


Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TLC's earnings have grown by 3.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TLC's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TLC had negative earnings growth (-2.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (55%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst TLC's Return on Equity (106.92%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/08/07 16:47
End of Day Share Price 2026/08/07 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Lottery Corporation Limited is covered by 24 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Nicholas McGarrigleBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Sriharsh SinghBofA Global Research