Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that InvoCare Limited (ASX:IVC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for InvoCare
What Is InvoCare's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that InvoCare had AU$194.3m of debt in June 2022, down from AU$246.9m, one year before. However, it does have AU$53.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$141.3m.
How Strong Is InvoCare's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, InvoCare had liabilities of AU$180.8m due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$976.7m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$53.0m as well as receivables valued at AU$64.7m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling AU$1.04b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of AU$1.49b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Given net debt is only 1.4 times EBITDA, it is initially surprising to see that InvoCare's EBIT has low interest coverage of 2.1 times. So while we're not necessarily alarmed we think that its debt is far from trivial. Also relevant is that InvoCare has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 29% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine InvoCare's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, InvoCare reported free cash flow worth 10% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
Neither InvoCare's ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that InvoCare is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with InvoCare , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:IVC
InvoCare
InvoCare Limited provides funeral, cemetery, crematoria, and related services in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.
Reasonable growth potential with mediocre balance sheet.