Should Coles Group (ASX:COL) Be Disappointed With Their 15% Profit?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 21, 2020
ASX:COL

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. For example, the Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) share price is up 15% in the last year, clearly besting the market decline of around 1.2% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Coles Group hasn't been listed for long, so it's still not clear if it is a long term winner.

View our latest analysis for Coles Group

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the last twelve months, Coles Group actually shrank its EPS by 9.2%.

So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

Revenue was pretty stable on last year, so deeper research might be needed to explain the share price rise.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:COL Earnings and Revenue Growth November 21st 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Coles Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Coles Group the TSR over the last year was 19%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Coles Group boasts a total shareholder return of 19% for the last year (that includes the dividends) . We regret to report that the share price is down 3.5% over ninety days. Shorter term share price moves often don't signify much about the business itself. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Coles Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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