The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Zicom Group Limited (ASX:ZGL) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Zicom Group's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Zicom Group had S$32.2m in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it does have S$11.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about S$21.1m.
How Strong Is Zicom Group's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Zicom Group had liabilities of S$78.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of S$12.5m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had S$11.1m in cash and S$34.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling S$45.1m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the S$11.3m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Zicom Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Zicom Group will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
In the last year Zicom Group had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 2.9%, to S$101m. We would much prefer see growth.
Caveat Emptor
Over the last twelve months Zicom Group produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. Indeed, it lost a very considerable S$3.7m at the EBIT level. Combining this information with the significant liabilities we already touched on makes us very hesitant about this stock, to say the least. That said, it is possible that the company will turn its fortunes around. Nevertheless, we would not bet on it given that it lost S$6.7m in just last twelve months, and it doesn't have much by way of liquid assets. So while it's not wise to assume the company will fail, we do think it's risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Zicom Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About ASX:ZGL
Zicom Group
Manufactures and sells marine deck machinery, fluid regulating and metering stations, transit concrete mixers, foundation and geotechnical equipment, and precision engineered and automation equipment in Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, China, Bangladesh, and internationally.
Good value with mediocre balance sheet.