Stock Analysis

Worley (ASX:WOR) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

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ASX:WOR
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Worley Limited (ASX:WOR) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

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What Is Worley's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Worley had debt of AU$1.99b, up from AU$1.90b in one year. However, it does have AU$425.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$1.56b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:WOR Debt to Equity History December 3rd 2023

How Strong Is Worley's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Worley had liabilities of AU$2.43b falling due within a year, and liabilities of AU$2.49b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$425.0m and AU$2.34b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total AU$2.16b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Worley has a market capitalization of AU$8.94b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Worley has net debt worth 2.2 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 5.1 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Also relevant is that Worley has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 27% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Worley can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Worley recorded free cash flow worth 66% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

The good news is that Worley's demonstrated ability to grow its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Worley takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Worley you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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