Stock Analysis

Seven Group Holdings Limited's (ASX:SVW) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 53% Above Its Share Price

ASX:SVW
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Key Insights

  • Seven Group Holdings' estimated fair value is AU$57.45 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Seven Group Holdings is estimated to be 34% undervalued based on current share price of AU$37.66
  • Analyst price target for SVW is AU$38.59 which is 33% below our fair value estimate

Does the April share price for Seven Group Holdings Limited (ASX:SVW) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Seven Group Holdings

Is Seven Group Holdings Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$804.5m AU$882.0m AU$993.5m AU$1.28b AU$1.35b AU$1.41b AU$1.46b AU$1.50b AU$1.54b AU$1.58b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.12% Est @ 3.53% Est @ 3.12% Est @ 2.83% Est @ 2.63%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9% AU$745 AU$757 AU$791 AU$943 AU$922 AU$890 AU$854 AU$816 AU$777 AU$739

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$8.2b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$1.6b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.9%– 2.2%) = AU$28b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$28b÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= AU$13b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$21b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$37.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
ASX:SVW Discounted Cash Flow April 21st 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Seven Group Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.251. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Seven Group Holdings

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Trade Distributors market.
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Seven Group Holdings, we've put together three important factors you should further research:

  1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Seven Group Holdings you should know about.
  2. Future Earnings: How does SVW's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Seven Group Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.