Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that EVN AG (VIE:EVN) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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What Is EVN's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2020, EVN had €1.21b of debt, up from €1.03b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have €513.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €698.9m.
A Look At EVN's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that EVN had liabilities of €889.3m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €3.25b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €513.1m and €636.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €2.99b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €3.32b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on EVN's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
EVN has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.2. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 46.9 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On top of that, EVN grew its EBIT by 37% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if EVN can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, EVN recorded free cash flow of 34% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
EVN's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. Having said that, its level of total liabilities somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. It's also worth noting that EVN is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Considering this range of data points, we think EVN is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with EVN , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About WBAG:EVN
EVN
Provides energy and environmental services for private and business customers, and municipalities.
Very undervalued established dividend payer.