United Parcel Service, Inc.

WBAG:UPSI Stock Report

Market Cap: €102.8b

United Parcel Service Valuation

Is UPSI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPSI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UPSI (€119.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€168.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPSI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPSI?

Key metric: As UPSI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UPSI. This is calculated by dividing UPSI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UPSI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.7x
EarningsUS$5.67b
Market CapUS$105.71b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPSI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPSI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.9x
POST Österreichische Post
13.4x-0.7%€1.9b
FDX FedEx
17x13.3%US$66.1b
DSV DSV
33.2x17.5%DKK 359.0b
DHL Deutsche Post
12.1x8.8%€39.0b
UPSI United Parcel Service
18.7x13.3%€105.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPSI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the peer average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPSI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UPSI 18.7xIndustry Avg. 13.6xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPSI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPSI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPSI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.7x
Fair PE Ratio35x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPSI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPSI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€119.76
€144.72
+20.8%
11.8%€179.88€97.23n/a30
Dec ’25€128.90
€140.56
+9.0%
11.7%€174.23€94.18n/a29
Nov ’25€123.84
€137.25
+10.8%
11.8%€170.09€91.94n/a29
Oct ’25€120.08
€131.29
+9.3%
13.0%€172.46€90.77n/a28
Sep ’25€114.88
€131.98
+14.9%
13.4%€171.91€90.48n/a29
Aug ’25€120.76
€136.90
+13.4%
14.2%€176.07€92.67n/a29
Jul ’25€126.80
€150.74
+18.9%
12.5%€190.94€93.14n/a29
Jun ’25€126.66
€149.43
+18.0%
12.5%€188.54€91.97n/a28
May ’25€138.46
€151.90
+9.7%
12.1%€191.10€93.22n/a30
Apr ’25€137.24
€147.91
+7.8%
12.9%€194.67€92.70n/a29
Mar ’25€136.38
€147.96
+8.5%
13.1%€193.79€87.67n/a29
Feb ’25€129.46
€148.46
+14.7%
14.0%€197.80€87.40n/a30
Jan ’25€142.10
€150.82
+6.1%
14.3%€199.76€90.80€120.3630
Dec ’24€140.68
€150.90
+7.3%
14.4%€200.51€91.14€128.9030
Nov ’24€132.06
€157.58
+19.3%
14.4%€207.88€94.49€123.8430
Oct ’24€148.46
€174.44
+17.5%
12.4%€217.56€94.59€120.0829
Sep ’24€155.68
€174.32
+12.0%
11.7%€211.09€91.78€114.8830
Aug ’24€167.78
€173.13
+3.2%
12.3%€209.16€90.94€120.7629
Jul ’24€161.22
€173.98
+7.9%
12.0%€210.73€91.62€126.8030
Jun ’24€156.84
€178.81
+14.0%
11.7%€215.21€93.57€126.6629
May ’24€159.02
€172.08
+8.2%
11.4%€204.12€90.72€138.4628
Apr ’24€176.76
€177.86
+0.6%
11.8%€208.46€92.65€137.2430
Mar ’24€172.34
€174.50
+1.3%
11.8%€206.64€91.03€136.3830
Feb ’24€167.48
€174.50
+4.2%
11.8%€206.64€91.03€129.4630
Jan ’24€164.54
€179.62
+9.2%
13.1%€236.64€94.28€142.1031

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/03 06:36
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

United Parcel Service, Inc. is covered by 55 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
John EadeArgus Research Company
Donald BroughtonAvondale Partners