Can Österreichische Post AG (VIE:POST) Performance Keep Up Given Its Mixed Bag Of Fundamentals?

Österreichische Post's (VIE:POST) stock up by 4.4% over the past week. However, the company's financials look a bit inconsistent and market outcomes are ultimately driven by long-term fundamentals, meaning that the stock could head in either direction. In this article, we decided to focus on Österreichische Post's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Österreichische Post

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Österreichische Post is:

23% = €152m ÷ €653m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.23.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Österreichische Post's Earnings Growth And 23% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that Österreichische Post has a significantly high ROE. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 19% which is quite remarkable. For this reason, Österreichische Post's five year net income decline of 2.7% raises the question as to why the high ROE didn't translate into earnings growth. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared Österreichische Post's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 20% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Österreichische Post fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Österreichische Post Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Österreichische Post has a high three-year median payout ratio of 94% (that is, it is retaining 6.1% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely. To know the 3 risks we have identified for Österreichische Post visit our risks dashboard for free.

In addition, Österreichische Post has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 97% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Österreichische Post's future ROE will drop to 18% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Österreichische Post's performance. While the company does have a high rate of return, its low earnings retention is probably what's hampering its earnings growth. In addition, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that the company's earnings are expected to continue to shrink. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.