Ulta Beauty, Inc.

WBAG:ULTA Stock Report

Market Cap: €16.3b

Ulta Beauty Valuation

Is ULTA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ULTA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ULTA (€333.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€475.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ULTA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULTA?

Key metric: As ULTA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ULTA. This is calculated by dividing ULTA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ULTA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.8x
EarningsUS$1.21b
Market CapUS$17.20b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ULTA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ULTA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.9x
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods
14.4x3.8%US$16.1b
CHWY Chewy
36.7x-0.3%US$13.3b
601888 China Tourism Group Duty Free
26.8x16.6%CN¥142.9b
9992 Pop Mart International Group
61.6x34.8%HK$101.2b
ULTA Ulta Beauty
13.8x-0.8%€17.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ULTA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the peer average (34.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ULTA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ULTA 13.8xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies12PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ULTA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ULTA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ULTA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ULTA's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ULTA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€344.60
€366.44
+6.3%
12.3%€436.51€277.44n/a26
Oct ’25€343.60
€363.29
+5.7%
12.1%€458.04€272.10n/a26
Sep ’25€322.60
€368.22
+14.1%
11.0%€456.92€271.44n/a25
Aug ’25€326.00
€432.88
+32.8%
12.9%€509.33€299.88n/a25
Jul ’25€361.90
€449.89
+24.3%
12.8%€568.11€326.73n/a25
Jun ’25€354.10
€449.56
+27.0%
12.0%€560.99€322.63n/a25
May ’25€379.50
€513.29
+35.3%
13.7%€643.56€326.45n/a26
Apr ’25€484.00
€542.65
+12.1%
10.8%€642.39€381.71n/a26
Mar ’25€510.00
€504.71
-1.0%
12.6%€585.47€348.52n/a25
Feb ’25€462.00
€496.08
+7.4%
12.1%€587.69€349.84n/a25
Jan ’25€442.00
€479.80
+8.6%
11.3%€561.47€342.32n/a25
Dec ’24€434.00
€480.67
+10.8%
11.6%€570.09€347.57n/a25
Nov ’24€356.00
€485.19
+36.3%
12.0%€572.61€354.34€344.6024
Oct ’24€380.00
€489.26
+28.8%
12.1%€598.21€350.51€343.6024
Sep ’24€386.00
€479.92
+24.3%
12.1%€587.84€344.44€322.6024
Aug ’24€404.00
€485.28
+20.1%
13.0%€586.37€320.67€326.0024
Jul ’24€432.00
€485.28
+12.3%
13.0%€586.37€320.67€361.9024
Jun ’24€380.00
€490.65
+29.1%
13.5%€596.61€326.27€354.1024
May ’24€498.00
€506.19
+1.6%
12.7%€583.36€331.79€379.5024
Apr ’24€498.20
€508.24
+2.0%
12.7%€586.33€324.51€484.0024
Mar ’24€480.90
€493.03
+2.5%
13.0%€568.70€329.79€510.0025
Feb ’24€470.30
€477.16
+1.5%
12.1%€562.45€326.16€462.0025
Jan ’24€434.10
€483.45
+11.4%
11.8%€570.52€330.84€442.0025
Dec ’23€450.30
€462.51
+2.7%
11.5%€575.88€325.37€434.0026
Nov ’23€428.30
€478.66
+11.8%
11.3%€599.58€338.76€356.0026

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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