Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited

SEHK:1929 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$66.8b

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Valuation

Is 1929 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1929 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1929 (HK$6.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$42.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1929 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1929?

Key metric: As 1929 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1929. This is calculated by dividing 1929's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1929's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15x
EarningsHK$4.48b
Market CapHK$66.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1929's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1929 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25x
9992 Pop Mart International Group
70.9x35.3%HK$117.9b
590 Luk Fook Holdings (International)
6.5x16.1%HK$8.2b
178 Sa Sa International Holdings
14.6x4.0%HK$2.2b
398 Oriental Watch Holdings
7.9xn/aHK$1.9b
1929 Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group
15x18.9%HK$66.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1929 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the peer average (25x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1929's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Specialty Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
84 Stelux Holdings International
0.2xn/aUS$10.28m
No more companies available in this PE range
1929 15.0xIndustry Avg. 9.6xNo. of Companies8PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1929 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the Hong Kong Specialty Retail industry average (9.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1929's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1929 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15x
Fair PE Ratio13.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1929 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1929 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$6.74
HK$8.50
+26.2%
11.5%HK$10.00HK$7.00n/a16
Dec ’25HK$7.13
HK$8.50
+19.2%
11.3%HK$10.00HK$7.00n/a17
Nov ’25HK$7.29
HK$9.00
+23.5%
20.3%HK$14.54HK$6.78n/a17
Oct ’25HK$8.75
HK$9.72
+11.1%
28.7%HK$17.00HK$6.50n/a17
Sep ’25HK$6.65
HK$10.26
+54.3%
27.1%HK$17.00HK$6.50n/a17
Aug ’25HK$6.85
HK$10.57
+54.3%
26.4%HK$17.00HK$6.50n/a17
Jul ’25HK$8.45
HK$12.35
+46.2%
24.4%HK$18.60HK$7.20n/a17
Jun ’25HK$10.04
HK$14.24
+41.8%
17.7%HK$19.00HK$8.50n/a18
May ’25HK$10.76
HK$14.32
+33.1%
17.2%HK$19.00HK$8.50n/a18
Apr ’25HK$11.54
HK$14.57
+26.2%
17.5%HK$20.00HK$9.40n/a17
Mar ’25HK$11.50
HK$14.78
+28.5%
16.9%HK$20.00HK$9.40n/a18
Feb ’25HK$10.94
HK$14.78
+35.1%
16.9%HK$20.00HK$9.40n/a18
Jan ’25HK$11.62
HK$15.17
+30.6%
16.9%HK$20.00HK$8.90n/a19
Dec ’24HK$11.10
HK$15.17
+36.7%
16.9%HK$20.00HK$8.90HK$7.1319
Nov ’24HK$11.20
HK$15.66
+39.8%
14.6%HK$20.00HK$11.80HK$7.2919
Oct ’24HK$11.80
HK$16.36
+38.6%
13.5%HK$20.00HK$11.80HK$8.7518
Sep ’24HK$11.90
HK$16.36
+37.5%
13.5%HK$20.00HK$11.80HK$6.6518
Aug ’24HK$13.36
HK$16.46
+23.2%
13.6%HK$20.00HK$11.80HK$6.8518
Jul ’24HK$14.08
HK$16.69
+18.5%
14.5%HK$20.73HK$11.80HK$8.4519
Jun ’24HK$13.62
HK$17.81
+30.7%
15.3%HK$21.00HK$11.80HK$10.0419
May ’24HK$15.70
HK$17.65
+12.4%
15.2%HK$21.00HK$11.80HK$10.7618
Apr ’24HK$15.58
HK$17.57
+12.8%
15.3%HK$22.00HK$11.80HK$11.5418
Mar ’24HK$15.52
HK$17.80
+14.7%
13.8%HK$22.00HK$11.80HK$11.5019
Feb ’24HK$16.66
HK$17.47
+4.9%
13.1%HK$20.50HK$11.80HK$10.9419
Jan ’24HK$15.92
HK$16.35
+2.7%
11.4%HK$19.00HK$11.80HK$11.6218
Dec ’23HK$14.44
HK$16.35
+13.3%
11.4%HK$19.00HK$11.80HK$11.1018

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 09:12
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is covered by 51 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Vineet Kulbandu SharmaBarclays
Arthur HuiBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Sarah LiuBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)