Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that CA Immobilien Anlagen AG (VIE:CAI) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for CA Immobilien Anlagen
How Much Debt Does CA Immobilien Anlagen Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that CA Immobilien Anlagen had €2.66b of debt in March 2023, down from €2.80b, one year before. On the flip side, it has €582.2m in cash leading to net debt of about €2.08b.
How Strong Is CA Immobilien Anlagen's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that CA Immobilien Anlagen had liabilities of €546.7m due within a year, and liabilities of €3.10b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €582.2m and €154.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €2.91b.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of €2.93b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Strangely CA Immobilien Anlagen has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 14.6, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Sadly, CA Immobilien Anlagen's EBIT actually dropped 4.8% in the last year. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CA Immobilien Anlagen can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, CA Immobilien Anlagen actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
While CA Immobilien Anlagen's net debt to EBITDA has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that CA Immobilien Anlagen is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for CA Immobilien Anlagen you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WBAG:CAI
CA Immobilien Anlagen
CA Immo is a real estate Group with its headquarters in Vienna and branch offices in six countries of Central Europe.
Fair value with moderate growth potential.