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The three-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Wienerberger (VIE:WIE) shareholders as stock falls 6.1% over the past week
Wienerberger AG (VIE:WIE) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 13% in the last quarter. But at least the stock is up over the last three years. Arguably you'd have been better off buying an index fund, because the gain of 26% in three years isn't amazing.
While the stock has fallen 6.1% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years of share price growth, Wienerberger actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 28% per year.
So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
You can only imagine how long term shareholders feel about the declining revenue trend (slipping at 2.9% per year). The only thing that's clear is there is low correlation between Wienerberger's share price and its historic fundamental data. Further research may be required!
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Wienerberger has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Wienerberger stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Wienerberger, it has a TSR of 38% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Wienerberger shareholders are down 3.8% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 29%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 7% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Wienerberger that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Austrian exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Wienerberger might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WBAG:WIE
Wienerberger
Produces and sells clay blocks, facing bricks, roof tiles, and pavers in Europe West, Europe East, and North America.
Established dividend payer and good value.
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