Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft

WBAG:HDD Stock Report

Market Cap: €287.9m

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Valuation

Is HDD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HDD (€0.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HDD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDD?

Key metric: As HDD is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HDD. This is calculated by dividing HDD's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HDD's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.1x
Sales€2.26b
Market Cap€287.90m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HDD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HDD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.4x
SEM Semperit Holding
0.3x6.3%€232.9m
ANDR Andritz
0.6x3.9%€5.2b
ROS Rosenbauer International
0.2x7.6%€242.1m
PAL Palfinger
0.3x1.6%€690.5m
HDD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
0.1x4.2%€287.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HDD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HDD's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Machinery Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.0.9x4.7%
HDD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
 0.1x4.2%US$303.09m
HDD 0.1xIndustry Avg. 0.9xNo. of Companies59PS00.81.62.43.24+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.0.9x13.0%
HDD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
 0.1x66.7%US$303.09m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HDD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the European Machinery industry average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDD PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HDD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HDD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.94
€1.73
+84.2%
8.3%€1.90€1.55n/a3
Nov ’25€0.95
€1.77
+85.2%
10.4%€2.00€1.55n/a3
Oct ’25€1.02
€1.77
+73.5%
10.4%€2.00€1.55n/a3
Sep ’25€1.05
€1.77
+68.3%
10.4%€2.00€1.55n/a3
Aug ’25€1.06
€1.85
+74.9%
11.5%€2.00€1.55n/a3
Jul ’25€1.26
€1.85
+46.6%
11.5%€2.00€1.55n/a3
Jun ’25€1.15
€1.70
+47.8%
17.3%€2.00€1.30n/a3
May ’25€0.94
€1.70
+81.0%
17.3%€2.00€1.30n/a3
Apr ’25€1.04
€1.83
+75.1%
18.3%€2.20€1.30n/a4
Mar ’25€1.05
€1.83
+74.0%
18.3%€2.20€1.30n/a4
Feb ’25€1.10
€1.93
+74.4%
17.0%€2.40€1.50n/a4
Jan ’25€1.23
€1.93
+56.1%
17.0%€2.40€1.50n/a4
Dec ’24€1.27
€1.93
+51.9%
17.0%€2.40€1.50n/a4
Nov ’24€1.13
€1.95
+72.0%
16.4%€2.40€1.50€0.954
Oct ’24€1.21
€1.95
+60.9%
16.4%€2.40€1.50€1.024
Sep ’24€1.30
€1.95
+50.6%
16.4%€2.40€1.50€1.054
Aug ’24€1.43
€1.98
+37.9%
14.5%€2.40€1.60€1.064
Jul ’24€1.43
€2.08
+45.1%
16.5%€2.40€1.60€1.264
Jun ’24€1.66
€2.20
+32.3%
14.0%€2.50€1.70€1.154
May ’24€1.83
€2.20
+20.1%
14.0%€2.50€1.70€0.944
Apr ’24€1.71
€2.37
+38.4%
5.3%€2.50€2.20€1.043
Mar ’24€1.73
€2.30
+33.3%
4.3%€2.40€2.20€1.052
Feb ’24€1.92
€2.30
+19.8%
4.3%€2.40€2.20€1.102
Jan ’24€1.48
€2.20
+48.4%
9.1%€2.40€2.00€1.232
Dec ’23€1.67
€2.17
+30.1%
7.8%€2.40€2.00€1.273
Nov ’23€1.41
€2.17
+53.9%
7.8%€2.40€2.00€1.133

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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