Banco Macro (BASE:BMA) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BMA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BMA (ARS437.3) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (ARS200.95)

BMA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

BMA Stock Overview

Banco Macro S.A. provides various banking products and services to retail and corporate customers in Argentina.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (10.4x) is below the AR market (10.6x)

Revenue is forecast to grow 35.55% per year

Earnings have grown 25.4% per year over the past 5 years

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Banco Macro Competitors

Grupo Financiero Galicia

BASE:GGAL

AR$345.2b

Banco BBVA Argentina

BASE:BBAR

AR$193.5b

Banco Patagonia

BASE:BPAT

AR$76.0b

Banco Hipotecario

BASE:BHIP

AR$15.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Banco Macro
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AR$437.30
52 Week High	AR$521.50
52 Week Low	AR$264.50
Beta	2.2
1 Month Change	5.27%
3 Month Change	47.51%
1 Year Change	32.21%
3 Year Change	143.28%
5 Year Change	104.20%
Change since IPO	2,834.90%

Shareholder Returns

	BMA	AR Banks	AR Market
7D	-10.5%	-7.2%	-1.6%
1Y	32.2%	25.2%	74.6%

Return vs Industry: BMA exceeded the AR Banks industry which returned 25.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BMA underperformed the AR Market which returned 73.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BMA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BMA volatility
BMA Average Weekly Movement	7.8%
Banks Industry Average Movement	7.9%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in AR Market	9.0%
10% least volatile stocks in AR Market	5.2%

Stable Share Price: BMA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of AR stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BMA's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1966	n/a	Gustavo Alejandro Manriquez	https://www.macro.com.ar

Banco Macro S.A. provides various banking products and services to retail and corporate customers in Argentina. It offers various retail banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, time deposits, credit and debit cards, consumer finance loans, mortgage loans, automobile loans, overdrafts, credit-related services, home and car insurance coverage, tax collection, utility payments, automated teller machines (ATMs), and money transfers. The company also provides personal loans, document discounts, residential mortgages, overdrafts, pledged loans, and credit card loans to retail customers.

Banco Macro Fundamentals Summary

How do Banco Macro's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BMA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AR$279.63b
Earnings (TTM)	AR$26.78b
Revenue (TTM)	AR$218.72b

10.4x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/B Ratio

Is BMA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BMA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AR$218.72b
Cost of Revenue	AR$3.29b
Gross Profit	AR$215.43b
Other Expenses	AR$188.65b
Earnings	AR$26.78b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	41.88
Gross Margin	98.50%
Net Profit Margin	12.24%
Debt/Equity Ratio	16.4%

How did BMA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.5%

Current Dividend Yield

37%

Payout Ratio

Does BMA pay a reliable dividends?

See BMA dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy BMA by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Banco Macro dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Sep 30 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Oct 04 2022
Days until Ex dividend	2 days
Days until Dividend pay date	2 days

Does BMA pay a reliable dividends?

See BMA dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BMA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BMA. This is calculated by dividing BMA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BMA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AR$279.63b

BMA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BMA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BMA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BMA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.5x
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia	13.4x	23.4%	AR$345.2b
BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina	7.8x	18.1%	AR$193.5b
BPAT Banco Patagonia	8.1x	n/a	AR$76.0b
BHIP Banco Hipotecario	4.7x	n/a	AR$15.7b
BMA Banco Macro	10.4x	5.2%	AR$279.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BMA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the peer average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BMA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BMA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the South American Banks industry average (7.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BMA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BMA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.4x
Fair PE Ratio	9.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BMA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BMA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BMA (ARS437.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ARS200.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BMA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Banco Macro forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

5.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BMA's forecast earnings growth (5.2% per year) is below the savings rate (7.7%).

Earnings vs Market: BMA's earnings (5.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the AR market (14% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BMA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BMA's revenue (35.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the AR market (21% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BMA's revenue (35.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BMA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.6%).

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Past Performance

How has Banco Macro performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

25.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BMA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BMA's current net profit margins (12.2%) are higher than last year (11.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BMA's earnings have grown significantly by 25.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BMA's earnings growth over the past year (0.4%) is below its 5-year average (25.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BMA earnings growth over the past year (0.4%) underperformed the Banks industry 29.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BMA's Return on Equity (7.9%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Banco Macro's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: BMA's Assets to Equity ratio (4.1x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: BMA has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (150%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 83% of BMA's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: BMA has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (33%).

Low Risk Deposits: BMA's Loans to Deposits ratio (52%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: BMA has an appropriate level of bad loans (1.3%).

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Dividend

What is Banco Macro current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.53%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Banco Macro Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Banco Macro dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Banco Macro)	3.5%
Market Bottom 25% (AR)	0.7%
Market Top 25% (AR)	4.5%
Industry Average (Banks)	4.8%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Banco Macro)	9.1%

Notable Dividend: BMA's dividend (3.53%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the AR market (0.71%).

High Dividend: BMA's dividend (3.53%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the AR market (4.5%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BMA has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: BMA's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (36.9%), BMA's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: BMA's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (67.1% payout ratio).

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Gustavo Alejandro Manriquez (53 yo)

4.83yrs

Tenure

Mr. Gustavo Alejandro Manriquez has been CEO of Banco Macro S.A. since November 2017 and served as its General Manager from May 30, 2016 to November 8, 2017. Mr. Manriquez served as a Deputy General Manage...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BMA's management team is seasoned and experienced (6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BMA's board of directors are considered experienced (5.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of BMA?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
General Public	188,149,550	29.4%
Individual Insiders	223,519,160	35.0%
Institutions	227,744,698	35.6%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 70.04% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
28.8%	Argentine Social Security Administration	184,156,124	ARS80.5b	0%	18.9%
17.68%	Delfin Jorge Ezequiel Carballo	113,049,283	ARS49.4b	1.18%	no data
17.28%	Jorge Pablo Brito	110,469,877	ARS48.3b	0%	no data
2.46%	Odey Asset Management LLP	15,760,220	ARS6.9b	-4.63%	1.23%
0.7%	Discovery Capital Management, LLC	4,462,550	ARS2.0b	-51.92%	0.81%
0.54%	Citadel Advisors LLC	3,453,800	ARS1.5b	155.31%	0.01%
0.42%	Eaton Vance Management	2,697,236	ARS1.2b	16.65%	no data
0.36%	Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership	2,282,720	ARS998.2m	39.52%	no data
0.16%	Consultatio Asset Management G.F.C.I.S.A.	1,051,859	ARS460.0m	0%	6.85%
0.14%	Santander Asset Management, S.A., S.G.I.I.C.	899,283	ARS393.3m	0%	0.01%
0.14%	ICBC Investments Argentina S.A.S.G.F.C.I.	864,989	ARS378.3m	0%	4.74%
0.13%	Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd	857,450	ARS375.0m	-9.62%	no data
0.13%	HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited	828,712	ARS362.4m	-18.21%	no data
0.12%	Galileo Argentina S.G.F.C.I., S.A.	776,430	ARS339.5m	0%	5.09%
0.11%	Schroder S.A. Sociedad Gerente de Fondos Comunes de Inversión	734,396	ARS321.2m	0%	7.67%
0.11%	Investis Asset Management S.A. S.G.F.C.I	728,090	ARS318.4m	0%	5.05%
0.11%	Group One Trading LP, Asset Management Arm	685,920	ARS300.0m	36.33%	0.03%
0.097%	Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments	621,410	ARS271.7m	-8.49%	no data
0.095%	BNP Paribas Arbitrage Sa, Asset Management Arm	606,880	ARS265.4m	0%	no data
0.094%	Universal-Investment-Gesellschaft Mit BeschrÄNkter Haftung	600,000	ARS262.4m	50%	0.01%
0.086%	Bbva Francés Asset Management S.A.	548,743	ARS240.0m	0%	6.8%
0.082%	Envestnet Asset Management, Inc.	524,770	ARS229.5m	151.41%	no data
0.076%	Galicia Administradora de Fondos S.A.	488,168	ARS213.5m	0%	4.55%
0.058%	Susquehanna Fundamental Investments, LLC	369,910	ARS161.8m	0%	0.01%
0.054%	Leap Investments LP	347,920	ARS152.1m	4.17%	0.03%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
BMA	BASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange)	Yes	Class B Ordinary Shares	AR	ARS	Jun 1994
BMA.D	BASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange)	Yes	Class B Ordinary Shares	AR	USD	Jun 1994
BMA.5	BASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange)		Class A Ordinary Shares	AR	ARS	Jul 1998
BMA	NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)		ADR REP 10 CLS'B' SHS ARS1	US	USD	Mar 2006
B4W	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)		ADR REP 10 CLS'B' SHS ARS1	DE	EUR	Mar 2006
BMA N	BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)		ADR REP 10 CLS'B' SHS ARS1	MX	MXN	Mar 2006

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31