Aramex PJSC (DFM:ARMX) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ARMX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ARMX (AED3.84) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (AED7.94)

ARMX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

ARMX Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 51.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.55% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 3.39% is not well covered by earnings

Aramex PJSC Competitors

Abu Dhabi Aviation

ADX:ADAVIATION

د.إ2.2b

Air Arabia PJSC

DFM:AIRARABIA

د.إ10.0b

PostNL

ENXTAM:PNL

€1.2b

bpost/SA

ENXTBR:BPOST

€1.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aramex PJSC
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	د.إ3.84
52 Week High	د.إ4.80
52 Week Low	د.إ3.50
Beta	0.81
1 Month Change	6.37%
3 Month Change	1.32%
1 Year Change	2.40%
3 Year Change	-7.47%
5 Year Change	-25.44%
Change since IPO	39.85%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 20

Is There An Opportunity With Aramex PJSC's (DFM:ARMX) 49% Undervaluation?

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Aramex PJSC ( DFM:ARMX ) by taking the forecast future...

Shareholder Returns

	ARMX	AE Logistics	AE Market
7D	4.1%	0.5%	2.8%
1Y	2.4%	-7.9%	31.1%

Return vs Industry: ARMX exceeded the AE Logistics industry which returned -8.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ARMX underperformed the AE Market which returned 31.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ARMX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ARMX volatility
ARMX Average Weekly Movement	4.3%
Logistics Industry Average Movement	5.5%
Market Average Movement	4.8%
10% most volatile stocks in AE Market	8.5%
10% least volatile stocks in AE Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: ARMX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of AE stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ARMX's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1982	n/a	Othman Aljeda	https://www.aramex.com

Aramex PJSC, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the freight, express, logistics, and supply chain management businesses in the United Arab Emirates, the Middle East and Africa, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Courier, Freight Forwarding, Logistics, and Other Operations. The Courier segment provides small packages delivery services to retail and wholesale customers.

Aramex PJSC Fundamentals Summary

How do Aramex PJSC's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ARMX fundamental statistics
Market Cap	د.إ5.52b
Earnings (TTM)	د.إ185.13m
Revenue (TTM)	د.إ6.09b

30.4x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is ARMX overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ARMX income statement (TTM)
Revenue	د.إ6.09b
Cost of Revenue	د.إ4.68b
Gross Profit	د.إ1.42b
Other Expenses	د.إ1.23b
Earnings	د.إ185.13m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 09, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.13
Gross Margin	23.24%
Net Profit Margin	3.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio	12.0%

How did ARMX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.4%

Current Dividend Yield

103%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ARMX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARMX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ARMX. This is calculated by dividing ARMX's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ARMX's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	د.إ5.52b

ARMX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.4x
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARMX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ARMX PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARMX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.5x
ADAVIATION Abu Dhabi Aviation	8.4x	0.1%	د.إ2.2b
AIRARABIA Air Arabia PJSC	10.5x	-4.4%	د.إ10.0b
PNL PostNL	13.3x	1.9%	€1.2b
BPOST bpost/SA	5.6x	-6.3%	€1.3b
ARMX Aramex PJSC	30.4x	22.6%	د.إ5.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.4x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARMX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Logistics Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.4x) compared to the Asian Logistics industry average (15.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARMX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARMX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	30.4x
Fair PE Ratio	24.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARMX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARMX (AED3.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (AED7.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARMX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Aramex PJSC forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

22.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARMX's forecast earnings growth (22.6% per year) is above the savings rate (8.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ARMX's earnings (22.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the AE market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ARMX's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ARMX's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the AE market (4.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ARMX's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ARMX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13%).

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Past Performance

How has Aramex PJSC performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-15.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ARMX has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ARMX's current net profit margins (3%) are lower than last year (3.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ARMX's earnings have declined by 15.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ARMX's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ARMX had negative earnings growth (-17.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Logistics industry average (50.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ARMX's Return on Equity (6.9%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Aramex PJSC's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ARMX's short term assets (AED2.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (AED1.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: ARMX's short term assets (AED2.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (AED1.1B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ARMX has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: ARMX's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 30.8% to 12% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ARMX's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (129.9%).

Interest Coverage: ARMX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Aramex PJSC current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.39%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ARMX's dividend (3.39%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the AE market (3.02%).

High Dividend: ARMX's dividend (3.39%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the AE market (5.57%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ARMX's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ARMX's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (102.8%), ARMX's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (61.3%), ARMX's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Othman Aljeda

15.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Othman Aljeda serves as Group Chief Executive Officer of Aramex PJSC since May 6, 2021 and served as its Chief Executive Officer in Europe and North America since July 2017 until 2021. Mr. Aljeda joine...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ARMX's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: ARMX's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31