Earnings Beat: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC (ADX:ADNOCDIST) just released its annual report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.5% to hit د.إ35b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at د.إ0.21, some 5.9% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC

Following the latest results, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of د.إ36.5b in 2024. This would be a credible 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to د.إ0.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of د.إ36.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of د.إ0.20 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of د.إ4.37, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at د.إ4.80 and the most bearish at د.إ3.90 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at د.إ4.37, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.