Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 16%: Here’s What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMBC), an important milestone in the company’s journey to build a stronger business. Statutory earnings per share of US$0.55 unfortunately missed expectations by 16%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of US$23m exceed expectations by 2.1%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Southern Missouri Bancorp after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Southern Missouri Bancorp

NasdaqGM:SMBC Past and Future Earnings May 4th 2020
NasdaqGM:SMBC Past and Future Earnings May 4th 2020

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Southern Missouri Bancorp from two analysts is for revenues of US$96.6m in 2021 which, if met, would be a decent 9.0% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 23% to US$2.34 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$92.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.30 in 2021. So it looks like there’s been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a modest lift to to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$30.50, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to Southern Missouri Bancorp’s valuation in the near term.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Southern Missouri Bancorp’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 9.0% increase next year well below the historical 13%p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.9% next year. So it’s pretty clear that, while Southern Missouri Bancorp’s revenue growth is expected to slow, it’s still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Southern Missouri Bancorp going out as far as 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Southern Missouri Bancorp you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn’t sit too well with us.

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