Is Atlantic Power (TSE:ATP) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Atlantic Power Corporation (TSE:ATP) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Atlantic Power

How Much Debt Does Atlantic Power Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Atlantic Power had debt of US$635.5m at the end of December 2019, a reduction from US$704.0m over a year. On the flip side, it has US$74.9m in cash leading to net debt of about US$560.6m.

How Strong Is Atlantic Power's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Atlantic Power had liabilities of US$122.9m due within a year, and liabilities of US$675.0m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$74.9m and US$46.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$676.4m.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$221.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Atlantic Power would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Atlantic Power shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.83 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. The silver lining is that Atlantic Power grew its EBIT by 115% last year, which nourishing like the idealism of youth. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Atlantic Power can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Atlantic Power actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

While Atlantic Power's level of total liabilities has us nervous. To wit both its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and EBIT growth rate were encouraging signs. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Atlantic Power's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. Given our hesitation about the stock, it would be good to know if Atlantic Power insiders have sold any shares recently. You click here to find out if insiders have sold recently.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.