Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, ‘The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about… and every practical investor I know worries about.’ So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ:FISV) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Fiserv
How Much Debt Does Fiserv Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2020 Fiserv had debt of US$21.2b, up from US$13.7b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$869.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$20.3b.
How Strong Is Fiserv’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Fiserv had liabilities of US$16.8b due within a year, and liabilities of US$27.0b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$869.0m as well as receivables valued at US$2.51b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$40.4b.
This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$63.6b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Fiserv’s use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Fiserv’s debt is 4.5 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 2.6 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we’d stop short of calling them problematic. Notably, Fiserv’s EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn’t ideal given the debt load. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Fiserv can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Fiserv actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
Fiserv’s interest cover and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. We think that Fiserv’s debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. Be aware that Fiserv is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn’t sit too well with us…
At the end of the day, it’s often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It’s free.
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