Stock Analysis

Evans Dixon (ASX:ED1) Share Prices Have Dropped 35% In The Last Year

ASX:EP1
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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the Evans Dixon Limited (ASX:ED1) share price is down 35% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 6.4%. Evans Dixon hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 13% in the last 90 days.

See our latest analysis for Evans Dixon

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unhappily, Evans Dixon had to report a 68% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 35% the share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have expected earnings to drop faster.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:ED1 Earnings Per Share Growth July 17th 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Evans Dixon's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Evans Dixon the TSR over the last year was -29%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We doubt Evans Dixon shareholders are happy with the loss of 29% over twelve months (even including dividends) . That falls short of the market, which lost 6.4%. That's disappointing, but it's worth keeping in mind that the market-wide selling wouldn't have helped. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 13%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Basically, most investors should be wary of buying into a poor-performing stock, unless the business itself has clearly improved. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 6 warning signs for Evans Dixon you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

Evans Dixon is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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