Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Kokuyo Camlin Limited (NSE:KOKUYOCMLN)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Kokuyo Camlin Limited (NSE:KOKUYOCMLN) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Kokuyo Camlin

The method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹511.0m	₹567.8m	₹624.2m	₹681.0m	₹739.1m	₹799.2m	₹862.0m	₹927.9m	₹997.6m	₹1.07b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 12.79%	Est @ 11.11%	Est @ 9.93%	Est @ 9.11%	Est @ 8.53%	Est @ 8.13%	Est @ 7.85%	Est @ 7.65%	Est @ 7.51%	Est @ 7.42%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 16%	₹440	₹420	₹397	₹373	₹348	₹324	₹301	₹278	₹257	₹238

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹3.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 7.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 16%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹1.1b× (1 + 7.2%) ÷ (16%– 7.2%) = ₹13b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹13b÷ ( 1 + 16%)¹⁰= ₹2.8b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹6.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹62.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kokuyo Camlin as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.954. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Kokuyo Camlin, we've put together three pertinent elements you should further research:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Kokuyo Camlin you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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