Are Investors Undervaluing Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) By 49%?

Does the June share price for Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Baidu

The model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥16.3b	CN¥24.9b	CN¥34.3b	CN¥41.5b	CN¥48.0b	CN¥53.5b	CN¥58.1b	CN¥62.0b	CN¥65.4b	CN¥68.3b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x6	Analyst x4	Est @ 21.1%	Est @ 15.43%	Est @ 11.47%	Est @ 8.69%	Est @ 6.75%	Est @ 5.39%	Est @ 4.44%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	CN¥14.6k	CN¥20.2k	CN¥25.0k	CN¥27.2k	CN¥28.3k	CN¥28.4k	CN¥27.8k	CN¥26.7k	CN¥25.3k	CN¥23.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥247b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₂₉ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥68b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ 11%– 2.2%) = CN¥784b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥784b÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= CN¥273b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥520b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$107, the company appears quite good value at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Baidu as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.220. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Baidu, We've put together three additional aspects you should further research:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Baidu has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does BIDU's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.